099
FXUS63 KFSD 080512
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1212 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH. PLEASE USE CAUTION AND REPORT ANY FIRES IMMEDIATELY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN LATE
TONIGHT AND OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
TWO LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS NOT QUITE WEST-SOUTHWEST ENOUGH ACROSS THE
BUFFALO RIDGE TO CAUSE HIGHER END DOWNSLOPE WINDS BUT ALONG THE
RIDGE STILL STRONG. A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AND STILL EXPECTING TO SEE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS, DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED, BUT COULD GET CLOSE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED
A BIT FOR THURSDAY. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT,
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE IN AND AROUND NORTHWEST IA.
THIS WAVE WILL PASS AND SHOULD SET UP A FAIRLY QUIET AND MILD FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 65 AND WINDS MOSTLY BELOW 20 MPH.
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL FEATURE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE, GUSTING AT 25-35 MPH. AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST STRONG WAA WILL TAKE
PLACE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS THAT MAY PRODUCE VIRGA TO
LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE FRONT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 AND ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY
0.01-0.02" OF QPF AVAILABLE. THOSE CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIMIT OUR
WARMING POTENTIAL, ALLOWING HIGHS TO ONLY CLIMB TO THE 40S. WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY AND WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH CONTINUED WAA,
RESULTING IN MILD LOWS IN THE 30S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. AS IT DOES SO WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DECREASE BRIEFLY. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL WORK TO BOLSTER THE LLJ AND SURFACE WINDS, RESULTING IN
STRONGER AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH AGAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EAST TO ABOUT I-29.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
IN ADDITION, BEHIND THE FRONT VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS IN EFFECTIVELY
CUTTING OFF SHOWER CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND MAY FLOW IN AS FAR
WEST AS HIGHWAY 60 IN NORTHWEST IOWA. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE HERE IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER CHANCES ARE LOW AT LESS THAN 25%.
DESPITE NORTHWEST WINDS, HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
60S SOUTH OF I-90 WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA. TO THE NORTH, MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL RESULT IN FALLING
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE USE CAUTION AND
REPORT ANY FIRES IMMEDIATELY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW US TO COOL DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY,
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. A SUBTLE WAVE AND WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF I-90, AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS MODELS HAVE A WIDE VARIANCE IN SOLUTIONS
AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
THIS WEEKEND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG IN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS IT AMPLIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST, VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS WILL PROPAGATE OFF THE PARENT WAVE AND ACCELERATE OVER
THE PLAINS BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY THE MAIN WAVE
EJECTS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
SAY WITH CERTAINTY, INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON THE
WEATHER AND KNOW WHERE THE NEAREST SHELTER IS, JUST IN CASE
SEVERE WEATHER STRIKES.
AS FAR AS HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND, WAA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM
SATURDAY UP INTO THE 60S, WITH 70S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN WARMER, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE WARM AS WELL, IN THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40-50S
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S CONTINUE FOR MONDAY BUT A
COOLDOWN IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
STRATUS HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOST PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE NEAR
SOUTHWEST MN AS WELL AS WEST OF THEW JAMES RIVER. FOR NOW EXPECT
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THESE
TWO AREAS. OTHERWISE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY. LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHWEST MN NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA MAY SEE GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. LLWS IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS NEAR AND ABOVE THE INVERSION ABOUT
45 TO 55 MPH. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING WESTERLY AND LIKELY GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-29 AND INTO SOUTHWEST MN.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...08
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...08
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