530
FXUS63 KFSD 230605
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
105 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 65
MPH THE MAIN THREAT.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY-60.
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- A VERY GOOD CHANCE (30%-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM AS PLANNED AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERS. IT WILL ONLY RECOVER GRADUALLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SO EXPECT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. BY MIDNIGHT,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
AREA-WIDE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CHANCE FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AIDED BY
AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THESE STORMS WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD, BUT AS THE DRYLINE NUDGES EASTWARD TONIGHT,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AS A 50-55 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TONIGHT, WITH INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DECREASING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 65 MPH AS THERE WILL BE AMPLE DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS
THAT WILL HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER GUSTS. WITH THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER, WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM ANY STORM, AS THESE COULD ALSO BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS
WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP, ON
THE ORDER OF 8-9 C/KM; HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
WEAK BULK SHEAR, UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TROUBLE SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES AND THUS ONLY SMALL HAIL LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT STILL
REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE LOWER
HUMIDITIES WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
HOWEVER THAT FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY IN CENTRAL SD LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE POTENTIAL AND SOME
DRIER LOW LEVELS HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS
TO 65MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND POSSIBLY MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN CENTRAL SD. THE WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BUT INSTABILITY WANES TOWARDS I-29, SO EXPECT ANY STRONGER
STORMS TO GENERALLY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND
AS WELL AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS PRETTY LIMITED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY SHIFTED A BIT EAST. FOR NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY
EAST OF A MARSHALL TO SIOUX CITY LINE. IF WE CAN BREAK OUT OF
THE CLOUD COVER AND WARM ENOUGH, THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000 J/KG
CAPE WITH ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HALF
DOLLAR HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WILL EXIST.
FRIDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH, SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
ON SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIFT EAST BUT NOT
MOVE VERY MUCH, AS JET ENERGY WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE INTO
THE AREA. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL ALSO
SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO THE AREA. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT FROM ROUGHLY SATURDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY THE AREA WILL SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, WHICH WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF LIFT APPEARS TO
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BUT FOR NOW THE VARIOUS MODELS FOCUS IS ALL OVER
THE PLACE SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OF NOTE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AND
EC ENSEMBLE INDICATE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A 60-90 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR A HALF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WHILE THE GEFS INDICATES
SOMETHING SIMILAR, JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. PROBABILITIES
OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE RUNNING ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT. LONG STORY
SHORT, WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE IF WE CAN REALLY GET SOME
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WRAPS UP TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LEAVING
THE AREA IN FASTER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND LIKELY MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT FOR NOW THAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY ISOLATED THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE ARE
SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA,
WITH A SECOND AREA OF WEAKER STORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE
STORMS WILL MISS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART, THE EXCEPTION BEING
NEAR KHON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE OF GETTING THUNDER NEAR OR AT THE
AIRPORT WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. ALL
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE, AND A
FEW AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, BUT THUNDER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT KFSD AND
KSUX FOR AT LEAST THIS EARLY MORNING ROUND. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT'S LOOKING
LIKELY THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST
OF KFSD, BUT THINGS ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN DOWN BY KSUX.
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT STORMS DEVELOP IN AND AROUND
KSUX OR JUST TO THE EAST. A PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA APPEARS
SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN WHERE THESE
STORMS DEVELOP.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AND LOWER AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF I-29. LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MAINLY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER
SUNRISE AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL, THESE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
TO END THE PERIOD. WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 35 KTS THROUGH SUNRISE,
DECREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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