243
FXUS63 KFSD 240210
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
910 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT, MAINLY OVER PARTS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT, LESSENING THE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS.
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- A VERY GOOD CHANCE (60%-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM AS PLANNED AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS RECOVERED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY, UP TO 35-45 MPH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ITSELF HAS
MOSTLY CLEARED THE AREA, INTRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME LINGERING BLOWING DUST OVER MAINLY NORTHWEST IOWA AT THIS
TIME. ANY OF THIS BLOWING DUST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT A MUCH COLDER NIGHT AHEAD AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART,
WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE QUIET DAY, COOLER BUT NOT COLD WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MORE OR LESS STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND SEND A WAVE
OUR WAY AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF IT. THIS LOOKS TO SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY FRIDAY EVENING. DRY AIR
BENEATH THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RAIN FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
INITIALLY, BUT LOOK FOR THINGS TO SATURATE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST IA WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT RACE
SOUTHEAST. SO FAR THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY 4-5PM.
THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ABOUT 1500-1750
J/KG CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR SO HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH SEEM LIKE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SURFACE CONNECTION WITH THE UPDRAFTS A VERY
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL AND DEW POINTS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD
IN TO A QUIET AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY CONTINUE TO
INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR A MEANINGFUL RAIN. NOT COMPLETELY READY TO
JUMP ON BOARD JUST YET, BUT THE DATA IS STARTING TO MAKE IT LOOK
DIFFICULT TO MISS OUT. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EC ENSEMBLE INDICATE A
WIDESPREAD 1" PLUS FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GEFS
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A SHARPER CUTOFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NORTHWEST IA SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST GEFS HAS INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE CANADIAN AND EC.
EVEN A QUICK LOOK AT THE 10TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTS PRETTY MUCH A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14.
RIGHT NOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW DURING THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. MAYBE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT ALL IN ALL THE INSTABILITY TENDS TO STAY
LOCKED UP FROM ROUGHLY I-80 SOUTHWARD.
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BRINGS THE AREA THE POTENTIALLY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, LEAVING THE AREA IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SPOTTY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH A
FEW WEAK WAVES EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AREAS
OF MVFR BLOWING DUST THROUGH THIS EVENING, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A KPQN TO KSUX LINE, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KFSD AT THE
VERY START OF THE PERIOD. THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30-40 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING, WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME MORNING HOURS, PERHAPS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS IN A FEW
SPOTS NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE FURTHER
DIMINISHING AND TURNING MORE WESTERLY AREA-WIDE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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