270
FXUS63 KFSD 240815
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEADS TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY, DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. CONTINUE TO
USE CAUTION TO PREVENT A SPARK.
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
- SCATTERED (50-70%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (50-90%) SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LOWER
40S AS WE'VE SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING EAST OF THE I-
29 CORRIDOR AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL SD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING, WITH COOLER BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CLOUDS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH NEAR CRITICAL AND CRITICAL RH VALUES (AROUND 25% OR LESS) FOR
MOST OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD CONCERNS ARE TEMPERED BY LIGHT
WINDS.
STILL LOOKS LIKE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
EARLIER TODAY. ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE AND UPPER JET STREAK ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR NORTH AND LOWER LEVELS SATURATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST IA WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT RACE
SOUTHEAST. SO FAR THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY 4-5PM.
THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ABOUT 1500-1750
J/KG CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR SO HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH SEEM LIKE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SURFACE CONNECTION WITH THE UPDRAFTS A VERY
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL AND DEW POINTS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD
IN TO A QUIET AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY CONTINUE TO
INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR A MEANINGFUL RAIN. NOT COMPLETELY READY TO
JUMP ON BOARD JUST YET, BUT THE DATA IS STARTING TO MAKE IT LOOK
DIFFICULT TO MISS OUT. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EC ENSEMBLE INDICATE A
WIDESPREAD 1" PLUS FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GEFS
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A SHARPER CUTOFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NORTHWEST IA SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST GEFS HAS INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE CANADIAN AND EC.
EVEN A QUICK LOOK AT THE 10TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTS PRETTY MUCH A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14.
RIGHT NOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW DURING THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. MAYBE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT ALL IN ALL THE INSTABILITY TENDS TO STAY
LOCKED UP FROM ROUGHLY I-80 SOUTHWARD.
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BRINGS THE AREA THE POTENTIALLY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, LEAVING THE AREA IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SPOTTY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH A
FEW WEAK WAVES EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY TOMORROW. BY FRIDAY EVENING, A SYSTEM IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND BRING SOME RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TO END THE PERIOD. RAIN MAY BE SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND
AT FIRST, BUT EXPECT THINGS TO SATURATE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO K9V9
AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
DAYTIME MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, BUT WINDS TURN WESTWARD AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page