343
FXUS63 KFSD 241119
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
619 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEADS TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY, DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. CONTINUE TO
USE CAUTION TO PREVENT A SPARK.
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
- SCATTERED (50-70%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (50-90%) SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LOWER
40S AS WE'VE SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING EAST OF THE I-
29 CORRIDOR AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL SD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING, WITH COOLER BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CLOUDS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH NEAR CRITICAL AND CRITICAL RH VALUES (AROUND 25% OR LESS) FOR
MOST OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD CONCERNS ARE TEMPERED BY LIGHT
WINDS.
STILL LOOKS LIKE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
EARLIER TODAY. ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE AND UPPER JET STREAK ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR NORTH AND LOWER LEVELS SATURATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST IA WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT RACE
SOUTHEAST. SO FAR THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY 4-5PM.
THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ABOUT 1500-1750
J/KG CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR SO HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH SEEM LIKE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SURFACE CONNECTION WITH THE UPDRAFTS A VERY
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL AND DEW POINTS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD
IN TO A QUIET AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY CONTINUE TO
INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR A MEANINGFUL RAIN. NOT COMPLETELY READY TO
JUMP ON BOARD JUST YET, BUT THE DATA IS STARTING TO MAKE IT LOOK
DIFFICULT TO MISS OUT. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EC ENSEMBLE INDICATE A
WIDESPREAD 1" PLUS FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE THE GEFS
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A SHARPER CUTOFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NORTHWEST IA SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST GEFS HAS INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE CANADIAN AND EC.
EVEN A QUICK LOOK AT THE 10TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTS PRETTY MUCH A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 14.
RIGHT NOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW DURING THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. MAYBE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT ALL IN ALL THE INSTABILITY TENDS TO STAY
LOCKED UP FROM ROUGHLY I-80 SOUTHWARD.
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BRINGS THE AREA THE POTENTIALLY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, LEAVING THE AREA IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN SPOTTY THROUGH THIS TIME WITH A
FEW WEAK WAVES EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MID AND A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY FOCUSED WEST OF I-29 EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS MOVE EAST FROM CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
TONIGHT; HOWEVER, THINK THAT WE'LL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY DUE
TO DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER, WITH BONAFIDE SHOWERS MOVING IN WEST OF
THE JAMES CLOSER TO 25.03Z. HAVE REFINED THE TIMING AT KHON, AND
ADDED A PROB30 OF -SHRA AT KFSD. SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG
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