097
FXUS63 KFSD 272352
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
652 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING COOL AND
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION.
- THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL RISKS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT MID-DAY WE'RE BEGINNING TO SEE 30+ KNOT WIND
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SD, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY FALL AS STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE.
TONIGHT: SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO CHEW AWAY ON LOWER STRATUS EARLY
THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA
NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
AREAS NORTH OF I-90. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CLEAR SKIES,
SHOULD WINDS FALL OFF ADEQUATELY, THEN AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THESE CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF
QPF OVER 0.10" NO MORE THAN 15% ATTM.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS MEDIUM AT BEST. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EXPANSION OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING TO THE
EAST, INCREASING OVERALL SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE SPREAD HAS NARROWED SLIGHTLY, WITH AN
OVERALL COOLING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 25/75TH PERCENTILE RANGES OF
THE NBM. WHILE POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS, THE PASSAGES OF
1-2 COOL FRONTS SATURDAY AND MONDAY COULD LEAD TO FUTURE LOW END
MENTIONS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING,
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE K9V9 AREA TO END THE PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO START THE PERIOD
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES, WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. FROM THERE, WINDS WILL DECREASE AREA-WIDE AND REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY, STILL MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES. IF WINDS CAN GO LIGHT ENOUGH
TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES LOOK
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SAMET
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