781
FXUS63 KFSD 280156
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
856 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH MAY
STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
- THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL RISKS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO GUST AS HIGH AS 35-40
MPH EAST OF I-29 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, AND THEN COULD STILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT NEAR AND EAST
OF US HIGHWAY 75 WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THEN. AS WINDS
TURN LIGHTER LATE TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I-29 WHERE WINDS
TURN LIGHTER AND CLOUDS CLEAR THE QUICKEST. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY
REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD ISSUES. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DROP TO THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTS DROPPING TO THE UPPER
20S MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY 14 EAST OF I-29. AT THIS POINT, THESE UPPER
20S IF IT OCCURS WOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT MID-DAY WE'RE BEGINNING TO SEE 30+ KNOT WIND
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SD, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY FALL AS STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE.
TONIGHT: SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO CHEW AWAY ON LOWER STRATUS EARLY
THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA
NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
AREAS NORTH OF I-90. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CLEAR SKIES,
SHOULD WINDS FALL OFF ADEQUATELY, THEN AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THESE CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF
QPF OVER 0.10" NO MORE THAN 15% ATTM.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS MEDIUM AT BEST. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EXPANSION OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING TO THE
EAST, INCREASING OVERALL SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE SPREAD HAS NARROWED SLIGHTLY, WITH AN
OVERALL COOLING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 25/75TH PERCENTILE RANGES OF
THE NBM. WHILE POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS, THE PASSAGES OF
1-2 COOL FRONTS SATURDAY AND MONDAY COULD LEAD TO FUTURE LOW END
MENTIONS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING,
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE K9V9 AREA TO END THE PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO START THE PERIOD
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES, WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. FROM THERE, WINDS WILL DECREASE AREA-WIDE AND REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY, STILL MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES. IF WINDS CAN GO LIGHT ENOUGH
TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES LOOK
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SAMET
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