402
FXUS63 KFSD 280833
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
333 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK FEATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL RISKS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. STRATUS
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHERN MO RIVER VALLEY, LEADING TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S; HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF FOG DEVELOPS,
EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH THE MO AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS, EAST TOWARD
I-29.
MINOR CHANGES EARLY THIS MORNING TO POPS FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN NE/IA EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH A SECOND
WAVE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 100
J/KG) WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH WITH WEAK WAA TO GET SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SOME QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UNSTABLE LAYER CAN SATURATE, SO NOT CONFIDENT IN GOING ANY
HIGHER WITH POPS AT THIS TIME. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. COOLER AGAIN
TODAY WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG AND/OR FROST DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT IF WE CAN SEE SKIES CLEAR A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES. WINDS MAY ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONGER ENOUGH AGAIN
TONIGHT TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE. TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO 30S AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT MID-DAY WE'RE BEGINNING TO SEE 30+ KNOT WIND
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SD, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY FALL AS STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE.
TONIGHT: SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO CHEW AWAY ON LOWER STRATUS EARLY
THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA
NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
AREAS NORTH OF I-90. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CLEAR SKIES,
SHOULD WINDS FALL OFF ADEQUATELY, THEN AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THESE CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF
QPF OVER 0.10" NO MORE THAN 15% ATTM.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS MEDIUM AT BEST. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EXPANSION OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING TO THE
EAST, INCREASING OVERALL SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE SPREAD HAS NARROWED SLIGHTLY, WITH AN
OVERALL COOLING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 25/75TH PERCENTILE RANGES OF
THE NBM. WHILE POPS REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS, THE PASSAGES OF
1-2 COOL FRONTS SATURDAY AND MONDAY COULD LEAD TO FUTURE LOW END
MENTIONS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND
WE'LL BE LEFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
CHANCES OF FOG STILL REMAIN LOW AND CONFINED TO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWER CHANCES TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, STARTING AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO AT LEAST BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS DURING ANY OF THE SHOWERS
THAT MOVE THROUGH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
ANY LINGERING ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO START THE PERIOD WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF NORTHWEST, BUT WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT TIMES WHEN WINDS GET LIGHTER.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SAMET
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