841
FXUS63 KFSD 281724
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1224 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL.
- SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO 30+ MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY.
- THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THE
AREA, WITH A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN THIS WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT
MAY FEATURE THE MOST CONCERNING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: THE PASSAGE OF MID-LVL VORTICITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR SPRINKLES TO VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE ARE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TONIGHT: LINGERING SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOCUSING INTO NW IOWA AS THE NIGHT
MOVES. ON. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DEPENDING ON CLEARING,
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE 30S. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN INCREASED CLOUDS, AS
WELL AS THE OBSERVATION THAT WET GROUND HELD UP TEMPERATURES
1-3 DEGREES LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, IF TD SPREADS WERE A BIT
MORE SUFFICIENT, PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WE'LL REMAIN WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING TOWARDS
HUDSON BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT ALSO BRING RISKS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK WARMUP WEDNESDAY MORNING, COMBINED
WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID-DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER
STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATE, WITH A POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE NOT ALL THAT
STRONG, BUT A POCKET OF 30+ MPH WINDS IN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
A SIMILAR STORY FOR THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES PERHAPS MORE FOCUSED
IN THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON. ONE HAZARD TO WATCH
WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT ANY STRONG DROP
INTO THURSDAY, BUT WITH LESS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY MORNING
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-32 LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
PROBABILITIES OF <32 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FROM BOTH THE HREF AND
NBM ARE SITTING AROUND 50% ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD 40%-60% PROBABILITIES OF <32 PRESENT
THEMSELVES FRIDAY MORNING AREAWIDE WITH PROBABILITIES OF <35
DEGREES NEARLY 90+%. ALL THIS TO SAY, WITH THE ACTIVATION OF
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HEADLINES TODAY, POTENTIAL IS GROWING FOR
HEADLINES INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS FURTHER EAST FRIDAY,
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S WITH DRY WEATHER.
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SIGNALING A GRADUAL
RISE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A PLEASANT SATURDAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS RISING THROUGH THE 60S. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AGAIN
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MID-LVL FLOW PATTERNS REMAIN SPLIT, WITH A DOMINATE
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW KEEPING THE RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
EXTREME WARMUP OVER THE SOUTHERN US. FURTHER NORTH, LINGERING
INFLUENCE OF WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPS TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MONDAY MAY BRING LOW RISKS FOR RAIN, WITH GREATER
POTENTIAL SHOWING UP IN EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SPRINKLES
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS.
SKIES MAY BRIEFLY CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK, WITH ADDITIONAL MID-
CLOUDS MOVING IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
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