046
FXUS63 KFSD 282343
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
643 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL.
- SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO 30+ MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY.
- THE FROST/FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THE
AREA, WITH A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN THIS WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT
MAY FEATURE THE MOST CONCERNING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: THE PASSAGE OF MID-LVL VORTICITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR SPRINKLES TO VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE ARE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TONIGHT: LINGERING SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOCUSING INTO NW IOWA AS
THE NIGHT MOVES ON. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DEPENDING ON CLEARING,
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE 30S. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN INCREASED CLOUDS, AS
WELL AS THE OBSERVATION THAT WET GROUND HELD TEMPERATURES UP
1-3 DEGREES LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, IF TD SPREADS WERE A BIT
MORE SUFFICIENT, PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WE'LL REMAIN WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVING
TOWARDS HUDSON BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT ALSO BRING RISKS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK WARMUP WEDNESDAY
MORNING, COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ASSIST IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID-DAY.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATE, WITH A POCKET
OF WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTING AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTIONING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG, BUT A POCKET OF 30+ MPH WINDS IN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE. A SIMILAR STORY FOR THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES PERHAPS MORE FOCUSED IN THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN
LATE AFTERNOON. ONE HAZARD TO WATCH WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT ANY STRONG DROP INTO THURSDAY, BUT WITH
LESS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SUB-32 LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITIES OF
<32 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FROM BOTH THE HREF AND NBM ARE SITTING
AROUND 50% ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THURSDAY MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD 40%-60% PROBABILITIES OF <32 PRESENT THEMSELVES
FRIDAY MORNING AREAWIDE WITH PROBABILITIES OF <35 DEGREES NEARLY
90+%. ALL THIS TO SAY, WITH THE ACTIVATION OF FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HEADLINES TODAY, POTENTIAL IS GROWING FOR HEADLINES INTO
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS FURTHER EAST
FRIDAY, REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S WITH DRY
WEATHER. HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
SIGNALING A GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A PLEASANT
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING THROUGH THE 60S. THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AGAIN RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MID-LVL FLOW PATTERNS REMAIN SPLIT, WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW KEEPING THE RISKS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND EXTREME WARMUP OVER THE SOUTHERN US. FURTHER NORTH,
LINGERING INFLUENCE OF WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPS
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY MAY BRING LOW RISKS FOR RAIN, WITH
GREATER POTENTIAL SHOWING UP IN EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS EVENING, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT WOULD BE FAVORED ANYTIME
AFTER 29/18Z. HIGHER CLOUD BASES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KT WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...JH
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