714
FXUS63 KFSD 292351
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
651 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
BUT ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30+ MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SPRINKLES TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
BOTH NIGHTS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: DIURNAL CU ALREADY FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NW IOWA AND SW
MINNESOTA. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT HAS
DEVELOPED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER, MORE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-500
J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SUGGESTING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES COULD
PROMOTE THE TRANSPORT OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS IN ANY STRONGER SHOWER.
WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
TONIGHT: CAMS ALL HINT THAT SYNOPTICALLY DRIVE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE CLUSTERING OF
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND A COMPACT AREA OF VORTICITY TRACKING
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS AS A RESULT OF
REASONABLE MODELING OF THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL POSE THE GREATEST HINDRANCE TO
ANY WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF THREE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO
TODAY, WE'LL SEE RAPID DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW-LVL TEMPS ARE EVEN A BIT COOLER
THAN TODAY, SO SOME GRAUPEL COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE THIRD AND
FINAL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE COULD HOLD ONTO
ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS ANY BREAK IN CLOUDS MAY
RESULT IN FROST TO NEAR FREEZE CONDITIONS. COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. THOUGH AGAIN, AFTERNOON CU WILL LIKELY FILL THE SKY.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST DAYS, WE'LL BEGIN
TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, BUT REMAIN IN A
PATTERN THAT SUGGESTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
EVERY 1-2 DAYS. THIS RESULTS IN A GREAT SATURDAY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
MODEL CLUSTERING SUPPORTS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE SUGGESTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S A
FEW DAYS AGO, WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT MAY NOT RESULT IN ANY MORE THAN SPRINKLES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: THIS AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SURROUNDING A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY GROWING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN LREF
AND NBM GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. THUNDER RISK AT SPECIFIC TERMINALS IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF, BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 25-30KT MAY ACCOMPANY SHOWERS EARLY UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET/02Z-03Z.
LEAD WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHWEST IOWA AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HOWEVER, WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...JH
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