271
FXUS63 KFSD 151834
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
134 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
HIGHWAY 14.
- THUNDERSTORM RISKS GROW AFTER 5PM FOR A NARROW PORTION OF NW
IOWA. HAIL TO 2 INCHES AND 70 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS MOVE
SOUTHEAST QUICKLY WITH THE RISK ENDED BY 9PM.
- THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER RISKS INCLUDING 1.5" HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL, STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS RISK MAY
EXTEND INTO MONDAY.
- IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, THE
TIME IS NOW TO PREPARE AND HAVE ALTERNATIVE PLANS IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: POORLY DEFINED "COOL" FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON NOW ENTERING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA AS OF 1PM. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY
ADVECTING 50 DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO PULL HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR NORTHWARD. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE
700:500 MB LAYER WILL ARRIVE INTO THE TRI-STATE. THIS INCREASED
LIFT COMBINED WITH SLIGHT PRESSURE RISES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CREATE A BIT MORE CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IN A PORTION OF NW IOWA (ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER). SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000- 1500 J/KG, WITH AN
INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TOWARDS 40+ KNOTS. IN ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS, LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY 2" OR GREATER) WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES BREAK THE 8C/KM MARK. INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA BOUNDARY IN NW IOWA
WOULD SUGGEST DOWNBURST POTENTIAL INCREASES AS WELL. WITH THE
MEAN WIND INCREASING FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST, STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR CLUSTERS AS THEY HEAD
INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE PEAK TIMING FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT
FALLS WITHIN THE 6PM TO 9PM TIMEFRAME.
TONIGHT: STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA VERY EARLY IN
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LEAVING QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERHEAD.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LVL DRY LAYER ADVECTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED BY
CONVECTION CLOSER TO I-80 BY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING DRY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL AREA FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY 850 MB WIND FETCH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARDS HIGHWAY 20 BY MID-EVENING. TEMPERATURES
UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S, AND WITH
PERSISTENT LOW RH AND BREEZY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FIRE DANGER
MAY BE ELEVATED.
SATURDAY NIGHT: TODAY'S GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION
OF RICH THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
CONVECTION FREE DEEP INTO THE EVENING. WE WILL BE WATCHING AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE
EXISTING WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS A STRONGER WAVE EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO TRACK NORTH OR
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ADVANCING ELEVATED MOISTURE AXIS AND TOWARDS THE
MO RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCAPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE, AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY
IN THE 6.5-7 C/KM RANGE THROUGHOUT THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
NEVERTHELESS, EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY JUST BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEND TO FEEL THE STRAIGHT LINE WIND RISK MAY BE LOWER, BUT SHOULD
THE SURFACE FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD OR BOUNDARY LAYER BECOME ONLY
LOOSELY STABILIZED, THEN A FEW STRONGER GUSTS COULD TRANSPORT DOWN
THROUGH THE MO RIVER VALLEY INTO NW IOWA INTO DAYBREAK.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER MORNING
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE MORNING, GUIDANCE
IS BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE
MOVING OVERHEAD THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUNDAY.
WHILE WE'LL ENTER A QUIET PERIOD, MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH SOME
MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR AOA 3000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST AN EML WILL HOLD IN PLACE INTO AT
LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE WAIT FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO LIFT
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD WORK TO PUSH THE EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT FURTHER NORTH WHILE REINFORCING A PRE-EXISTING COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL NE/SD. THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC LIFT AFTER
21Z COULD LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH THE LARGE RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY, BULK SHEAR
OVER 50 KNOTS, AND STRONG LOW-LVL BUOYANCY ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY. NUMEROUS SOUNDING ANALOGS SUGGEST 2-4"
HAIL IN ANY DISCRETE OR INITIAL UPDRAFT THAT FORMS. STORMS
STAYING DISCRETE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR LINE
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST INSTEAD. THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LVL FLOW AFTER DARK AND AND SLIGHT BACKING
OF SURFACE WINDS COULD LEAD TO A MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL OF QLCS
ACTIVITY INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS
TRACK INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA.
AS WE MOVE PAST MIDNIGHT, MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH THE LINE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ECMWF/NAM/CMC ARE HOLDING BACK THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST, AND
ACTUALLY ALLOW DEEPER INSTABILITY TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE PERSISTENT 40-50 KNOT LLJ COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED HAIL
PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN.
MONDAY: A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER RISKS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE ON MONDAY
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THE GFS BASED MODELS
HOLD TRUE, THEN BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS WOULD PULL THE
SURFACE FRONT BACK WESTWARD WHILE LEAVING A LARGE DEGREE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WESTWARD. THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS, BUT MONDAY COULD ALSO FEATURE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END
SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF I-90.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: WE'LL SEE A DISTINCT COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WITH A COOLER NORTHWEST WIND ONLY RISE INTO THE THE UPPER 50S. A
SLOW RECOVERY TOWARDS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IS POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL, SUGGESTING ONE MORE MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW CREATING A FEW RAIN CHANCES BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NW IOWA, MINNESOTA, AND NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY FORM
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER FOR A FEW
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO SATURDAY, WITH
UPPER CLOUDS AND THEN MID-LVL CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE REGION. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
14 NEAR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING ENDING THE RISKS.
EASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT
OR AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THAT SAID, GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
STAY LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...DUX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page