095
FXUS63 KFSD 052122 CCA
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
422 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS IS VERY LOW AND CONDITIONAL. IF A SEVERE STORM CAN
DEVELOP, HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- A SYSTEM WRAPS NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LOW.
- TEMPERATURES HEAT UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE (30-70%) OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. BE PREPARED TO ENACT ANY HEAT RELATED
SAFETY MEASURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA AND ARE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EVEN LOWER IN OUR SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA COUNTIES. IF A STORM WERE TO SNEAK IN (<20% CHANCE), THEN
IT WILL HAVE AROUND 1,000 TO 1,500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND AROUND 35-40
KTS OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH, WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED 60 MPH
WIND GUST OR INSTANCE OF HALF DOLLAR HAIL. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
THIS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THREAT IS THROUGH 9-10 PM.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH CALM
WINDS, AND THUS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. THE NBM
FAVORS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 FOR FOG WHILE THE REFS FAVORS
NORTH OF I-90. WOULD LEAN TOWARDS REFS ON THIS ONE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTH OF I-90 LEFT BEHIND FROM RECENT
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE AREAS WILL COOL THE FASTEST TOWARDS THE
DEW POINT TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER LONGER NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 20 AS WELL TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THIS COULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL THERE. SPEAKING OF
THOSE STORMS, THEY LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE THING
WORTH WATCHING WITH THESE STORMS IS ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFT BEHIND THAT COULD AFFECT WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY. SOME CAMS INCLUDING THE 05.12Z HRRR AND RRFS-2 SHOW
SOME STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHWAY-20 CORRIDOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE
POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA, SO THAT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. BUT WHEN LOOKING AT OVERALL CHANCES
ACCORDING TO THE REFS AND HREF, THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LESS THAN
20%. SO OTHERWISE, DRY, SUNNY, AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, HOTTEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY, GUIDANCE SHOWS AND UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TO THE WEST, A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE EC ENSEMBLE SHOWS AN UP TO
60% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE BRINGS BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN POOR
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA,
SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST WILL HELP FIRE OFF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND SOME OF THESE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-29 INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WANING
INSTABILITY AND STORMS POTENTIALLY OUTRUNNING THE BEST SHEAR
WILL MEAN THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY WITH THIS IS
ALSO FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WILL BE THE
BUILDING HEAT, STARTING TUESDAY. THAT'S WHEN HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S AREA-WIDE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS NEARING
100 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THEN WEDNESDAY MAY BE EVEN
HOTTER AS A FRONT TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NBM HAS COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT LOOKING AT THE LREF, IT HAS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
HIGHS ABOVE 95 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THEN A 40-70%
CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY IN THAT AREA. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO THIS
HEAT BEING REALIZED ON WEDNESDAY IS THAT STORMS MAY FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SO THAT COULD AFFECT HEATING. EITHER
WAY, KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE HEAT RELATED SAFETY MEASURES!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
IOWA/FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION AT KSUX AT THIS
TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THE CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING
IS ROUGHLY 20-30% ACROSS THE AREA, TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD, INCREASING TOWARDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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