040
FXUS63 KFSD 060935
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
435 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND DECREASING AS YOU MOVE EAST.
- A SYSTEM WRAPS NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LOW.
- TEMPERATURES HEAT UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 95F TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. BE
PREPARED TO ENACT ANY HEAT RELATED SAFETY MEASURES.
- WHILE DETAILS IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN,
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SEVERE RISKS RETURN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY, MAINLY LIGHT FOG (VISIBILITY 3-5 MILES)
EARLY THIS MORNING, MOSTLY NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. NOT
SEEING MUCH SIGNAL OF THIS ON SATELLITE THIS FAR SOUTH, LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF THE PATCHY AND/OR MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG
WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH MOST AREAS CLEAR OF FOG BY 8 AM.
TODAY AND REALLY MOST OF THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET
SIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LIFT INTO AREAS EAST OF
I-29 SUNDAY, BUT LACK OF SHEAR AND MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC DID
EXPAND THE LEVEL 1 OF 5/MARGINAL RISK INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA.
THIS IS LIKELY FOR A LOW CHANCE THAT STORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS
MAINTAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE
RISK IN OUR AREA LOOKS LOW.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY COME INTO FOCUS FOR AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. LATEST MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT
SHARPLY COLDER IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA YET, THE PROBABILITIES FOR
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95F IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES HAS DROPPED
10-20% FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, KEEPING THE PROBABILITY
AROUND 30-50% FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, WITH
HUMIDITY ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WE ARE SEEING A COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY
TOPPING 100F IN SOME LOCATIONS. PLAN NOW TO ENSURE YOU HAVE
ACCESS TO COOLING LOCATIONS.
WHILE DETAILS IN TIMING/LOCATION ARE STILL COMING TOGETHER, THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER RISKS BACK TO
THE REGION BY MID-WEEK AS THESE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION. THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
DAYS 4-8 OUTLOOKS FROM SPC WHICH PLACE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN
A 15% RISK FOR DAY 4/TUESDAY (OUR SD COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT)
AND DAY 5/WEDNESDAY (MOST OF THE CWA, EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA). MONITOR THE FORECAST THROUGH THE COMING DAYS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA AND ARE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EVEN LOWER IN OUR SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA COUNTIES. IF A STORM WERE TO SNEAK IN (<20% CHANCE), THEN
IT WILL HAVE AROUND 1,000 TO 1,500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND AROUND 35-40
KTS OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH, WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED 60 MPH
WIND GUST OR INSTANCE OF HALF DOLLAR HAIL. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
THIS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THREAT IS THROUGH 9-10 PM.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH CALM
WINDS, AND THUS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. THE NBM
FAVORS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 FOR FOG WHILE THE REFS FAVORS
NORTH OF I-90. WOULD LEAN TOWARDS REFS ON THIS ONE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTH OF I-90 LEFT BEHIND FROM RECENT
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE AREAS WILL COOL THE FASTEST TOWARDS THE
DEW POINT TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER LONGER NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 20 AS WELL TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS TO OUR
SOUTH, SO THIS COULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL THERE. SPEAKING OF
THOSE STORMS, THEY LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE THING
WORTH WATCHING WITH THESE STORMS IS ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LEFT BEHIND THAT COULD AFFECT WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY. SOME CAMS INCLUDING THE 05.12Z HRRR AND RRFS-2 SHOW
SOME STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHWAY-20 CORRIDOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE
POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA, SO THAT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. BUT WHEN LOOKING AT OVERALL CHANCES
ACCORDING TO THE REFS AND HREF, THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LESS THAN
20%. SO OTHERWISE, DRY, SUNNY, AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, HOTTEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY, GUIDANCE SHOWS AND UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TO THE WEST, A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE EC ENSEMBLE SHOWS AN UP TO
60% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE BRINGS BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN POOR
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA,
SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST WILL HELP FIRE OFF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND SOME OF THESE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-29 INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WANING
INSTABILITY AND STORMS POTENTIALLY OUTRUNNING THE BEST SHEAR
WILL MEAN THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY WITH THIS IS
ALSO FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WILL BE THE
BUILDING HEAT, STARTING TUESDAY. THAT'S WHEN HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S AREA-WIDE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS NEARING
100 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THEN WEDNESDAY MAY BE EVEN
HOTTER AS A FRONT TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NBM HAS COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT LOOKING AT THE LREF, IT HAS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
HIGHS ABOVE 95 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THEN A 40-70%
CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY IN THAT AREA. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO THIS
HEAT BEING REALIZED ON WEDNESDAY IS THAT STORMS MAY FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SO THAT COULD AFFECT HEATING. EITHER
WAY, KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE HEAT RELATED SAFETY MEASURES!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
FORMATION. THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29,
LOW LAYING AREAS AND RIVER BOTTOMS MAY ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASE. AREAS
WEST OF I-29 WILL SEE GUSTS RANGING FROM 15 KTS TO 30 KTS, WITH THE
STRONGEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EAST OF I-29 GUSTS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KTS. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...AJP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page