398
FXUS63 KFSD 100842
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
RISK FOR ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR IN THE
MID AFTERNOON.
- BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PING PONG
BALL SIZE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SATURDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY
NORTHWEST IOWA. WHILE A LOWER PROBABILITY SCENARIO (~20%), A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SEVERE STORMS HAVE EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND RESIDUAL WAKE LOW
WINDS LIKEWISE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 2 AM.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE
WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY, WITH BEST CONSENSUS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT REACHING
HIGHWAY 71 BY AROUND 3 PM. THIS LEAVES A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH GREATER CONSENSUS POINTS TO DEVELOPMENT JUST
EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER 21Z. THAT SAID, MAY CARRY A LOW POP IN
OUR FAR EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 3KM NAM SOLUTION
WHICH SHOWS SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT NEAR HIGHWAY 71 IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
MORE CONCERNING AREA FOR POTENTIAL STRONGER STORMS WILL COME
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN PARTS DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAINOF NORTHWEST IOWA AS A STRONG WAVE SLIDES NORTHEAST
ALONG A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT. GREATER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING EARLY MORNING SUPERCELLS TRANSITIONING
INTO AN MCS, APPEARS FOCUSED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS FOR A
POSSIBLE STRONGER STORM IN AREAS FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME (~5
AM TO 9 AM). AT THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL
UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
POSSIBLE.
A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WELL BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, WEAK SHALLOW
INSTABILITY BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH COULD SUPPORT SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING. THE RAP INDICATES A NORTH-SOUTH
ZONE OF ENHANCED STRETCHING POTENTIAL BENEATH THE TROUGH WHICH
COULD INDICATE A WEAK FUNNEL CLOUD POTENTIAL WITH DEVELOPING
UPDRAFTS.
A BRIEF WARM-UP FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ON SATURDAY. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH, SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK, BUT THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY SCENARIO
WITH GREATER RISKS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS ON SATURDAY WILL WANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
THE COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S LOOKS TO STICK
AROUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH A WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SCATTERED STORMS, AND AN ASSOCIATED WAKE LOW, ARE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND PRODUCING AREAS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
TSRA IS MOST LIKELY AT KFSD THROUGH 08Z, AND SW GUSTS TO 30 KTS
WERE INCLUDED IN THE TEMPO GROUP DUE TO THE WAKE LOW. SHOWERS,
AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED STORMS, COULD LINGER AT KFSD/KSUX
THROUGH 12-13Z. OTHERWISE, THE PREVAILING WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST- NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12-18Z. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, THEN GUSTS
SUBSIDE AFTER 00-01Z. ASIDE FROM SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...05
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