133
FXUS63 KFSD 071101
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
601 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX
READINGS PEAK BETWEEN 90 AND 100 DEGREES. PLEASE ENSURE YOU
ARE HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS OUT OF THE HEAT!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL AND 60+ MPH WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE 90S TO 100 DEGREE
MARK BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT CAPABLE OF
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 50-60 MPH HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY THOUGH, THIS RISK WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
A LOOK AT THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT BUT HAS
SHOWN TRENDS TOWARDS PUSHING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW INHIBITION HOLDING ON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A SYNOPTIC WAVE
EJECTS EASTWARD IN THE EVENING, WE'LL WATCH FOR THE CLUSTERING
OF STORMS BOTH TO OUR WEST, BUT ALSO NORTH. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS HOW FAR EAST (OR SOUTH)
THIS CONVECTION CAN TRACK BEFORE IT RUNS INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM AND WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO ANY ELEVATED CLUSTERS THAT TRACK INTO THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY (MOSTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS) REMAINS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
THE ONLY OTHER MODIFICATION TO TODAY'S FORECAST WAS TO BOOST DEW
POINTS SLIGHTLY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH MID-DAY. WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING FURTHER NORTH, THIS DOES INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
MIXDOWN OF DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S (HIGHER NEAR
THE WARM FRONT), WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DEEPER IN THE 90S WEST
OF I-90 WHERE LOW-LVL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR THE UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, WE'RE CONTINUING
TO WATCH A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH A SMALL CAP
IN PLACE ALOFT ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS, THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN UPON APPROACH. HOWEVER, AS
DIURNAL HEATING PERSIST AND EVENTUALLY ERODES THE REST OF THE CAP;
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INITIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SD AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHCENTRAL SD. BOTH AREAS OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MEET IN OUR AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING UP TO QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKEN PAST
THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. LASTLY, EXPECTED ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO TUESDAY, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY IN PLACE, EXPECT ANOTHER
DOSE OF THE SUMMER HEAT AS HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. WITH
THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING
ALOFT, WE'RE STILL ON TRACK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO TRACK FROM CENTRAL SD THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW DOES THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
EVOLVE DURING THIS TIME AND WILL IT BE SEVERE. WITH THE BETTER
FORCING CONTINUING TO SIT CLOSER TO THE ND/SD BORDER, WE'LL CONTINUE
TO HEDGE OUR BETS ON THE BETTER SEVERE RISK BEING NORTH OF US.
HOWEVER, STILL CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH NORTH OF I-90 IF STRONG COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP WITH A FEW
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR
FUNNELS IN BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY LEADING TO HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA AND THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK CAN'T BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY-20 CORRIDOR AND PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN IA, THE LOCATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP
SETTING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. LASTLY, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN BY THURSDAY AS HIGHS SLIGHTLY DECREASE INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 80S FOR THE DAY.
THE WEEKEND: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE ALOFT AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
MULTIPLE WAVES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE PLAINS LEADING TO AT LEAST
SOME SMALLER CHANCES (<30%) THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGING
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE THE RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. WITH HEAT INDICES
POTENTIALLY REFLECTING SIMILAR VALUES, MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED
AND TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SCATTERED MID-LVL CLOUD LAYERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE WARM FRONT BISECTS THE
AREA, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY ALLOWING A BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WIND TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE. OCCASIONAL CU WILL ALSO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEW
POINTS LOWER.
MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA INTO THE
EVENING WITH EYES POINTED TOWARDS THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EASTWARD, GENERALLY
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE, WILL ONLY UTILIZE A
PROB30 TO SHOW POTENTIAL.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...DUX
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...DUX
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