724
FXUS63 KFSD 100803
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
303 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE US HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. SEVERE STORMS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (30% CHANCE OR LESS) THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH; GREATEST RISK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL TREND WARMER, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A DAY OR TWO MAY FEATURE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE
CUMULATIVE NATURE OF THE HEAT COULD LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE US HWY 71 CORRIDOR
WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW
2 MILES AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. FURTHER NORTH, WATCHING A
CLUSTER OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD WHICH
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE US HWY 14 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE OUTFLOW
IS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND ALREADY FIRING OFF SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG US HWY 14. GUSTS ARE
TAPERING DOWN, BUT HAVE SEEN GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WITH THE
OUTFLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING.
REST OF TODAY, MID/UPPER WAVE SHOULD SKIRT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD FIRE OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS IN NORTHERN NE AND THE PART OF THE SOUTHERN MO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A CAP. MEANWHILE, WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHERE THE REMNANTS OF
THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION END UP AS WELL AS ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARIES, WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN SD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IA WHERE ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE
VORT LOBE MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MEAGER
AT BEST, THERE'S MODEST INSTABILITY AND AN ERODING CAP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 DEG
C/KM COULD SUPPORT QUARTER SIZED HAIL, AND WITH HIGH DCAPE, ISOLATED
60 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED RECENT TRENDS OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND MIXING DOWN DRIER AIR KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND MID 70S AND THE CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF NUMEROUS DAYS OF
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE, HEATRISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR TO
MAJOR CATEGORIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME.
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS OR IF YOU ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE/VULNERABLE
TO THE HEAT, BE PREPARED FOR HEAT IMPACTS AND TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TONIGHT: SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO ROLL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS
BOTTLED UP OVER THE WEST RIVER AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING, AND AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EASTWARD IT'S LIKELY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY BY
TIME IT REACHES THE CWA. A FEW GUSTY WINDS WITH DECAYING SHOWERS
COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE REMNANT AREA
OF VORTICITY MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA, AND COULD KEEP A
LOW RISK FOR CONVECTION THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE MO RIVER
VALLEY.
FRIDAY: A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL ND
LATE TONIGHT, AND SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN SD BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. A POTENTIAL MCV COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
SD PORTIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE, AND WITH THAT AREA ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW-LVL EML, CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
FORMING AFTER 4-5PM. FROM A PARAMETER PERSPECTIVE, MLCAPE
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2000 J/KG, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS VERY WEAK,
SUGGESTING ONLY PULSE STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND BRIEF HAIL
COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO SW MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING. AS
INSTABILITY PULLS NORTHWARD IN THE EVENING THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE, A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THIS WEEKEND: MID-LVL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BEGIN A STEAD UPWARDS RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
ONE THING TO NOTE IN RECENT GUIDANCE IS THAT SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY REMAIN MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND RATHER LIGHT, WHICH
COULD HOLD DOWN THE EXTREME CLIMB IN HIGHS SUGGESTED A FEW DAYS AGO.
WE'LL ALSO SEE A BIT MORE MIX DOWN OF DRY AIR AS SOUNDINGS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED A BIT DRIER, THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON DEW POINTS TO FALL
AND KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW CRITICAL LIMITS.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: A DRY AND HOT WEEK IS EXPECTED IN THE REGION AS A
600+ DM 500 MB RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE CWA. THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE PREVENT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S MOST DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE'LL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME
AREAS REACHING 100 ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE EC
ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH 60%+ PROBABILITIES ALONG THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY-THURSDAY. WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN
AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, THIS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX READINGS OVER 100 DEGREES. WHILE THE DAY TO
DAY NUMBERS MAY NOT BE EXTREME, THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THE HEAT
COULD LEAD TO HEALTH RELATED STRAIN BY MID-LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FLOW IN FROM STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FEW HOURS PRECEDING SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
LOW CHANCES (<25%) FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 6 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AROUND 10 AM. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT THUNDER
AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM AROUND 4 PM UNTIL ROUGHLY 10 PM. BETTER INSTABILITY BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED MEANS THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSY IN NATURE. SOME MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. THIS ROUND IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-29 INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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