198
FXUS63 KFSD 102310
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING. WHILE RISKS REMAIN LOW, STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF 60 MPH GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
- WE'LL BE ENTERING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN
UNDER 100 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS, BUT THE CUMULATIVE NATURE OF
THE HEAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR ISSUES.
- NEXT RISKS FOR RAIN APPEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST, FOCUSED ON
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER CLOUD COVER FROM
MID-LVL VORTICITY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO SPREADS
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS CLOUD COVER SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA INTO EARLY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE THICKNESS OF
THIS LAYER, TEMPERATURES COULD BE HAMPERED SLIGHTLY. FURTHER
NORTH, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A COMPACT AREA OF VORTICITY CROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH A BIT OF ACCAS NEARBY.
WHILE SOME SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS ACCAS, DEEPER
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LESS LIKELY GIVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY IN THE
AREA.
WHILE THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY, GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF ANY STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND A BIT OF WEAK INHIBITION. I CONTINUE TO SEE TWO AREAS TO
WATCH...ONE BEING WITH THE ACCAS FIELD NEAR WATERTOWN, BUT
SECOND ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE WHERE A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM DESMET TO MITCHELL
AND YANKTON. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WILL RUN FROM 1500-2000
J/KG, BUT SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY PULSE SEVERE
STORMS WITH QUARTERS AND VERY LOCALIZED 60 MPH WINDS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT, BUT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WE'LL REMAIN QUIET WITH
LIGHT WINDS. SOME FOG MAY POP UP, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ISN'T
ANTICIPATED.
THIS WEEKEND: A QUIET WEEKEND IS AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REACH INTO
THE UPPER 80S OVER MN/IA AND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WEST OF I-
29. HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NEXT WEEK: A 600 DM RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SPELLS TWO THING...HOT
AND DRY. EACH DAY WILL FEATURE NEARLY THE SAME IDENTICAL SETUP,
WITH A BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-29, WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TOWARDS THE
100 DEGREE MARK. ECE/GEFS PROBABILITIES SHOW 40+ PROBABILITIES OF
>100 DEGREE HIGHS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE SAVING GRACE
THIS WEEK WILL BE THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR ALOFT AND BREEZY WINDS. THE
RESULTANT MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON WILL DROP THE DEW POINTS TOWARDS
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS RESULTS IN A LOWER HEAT INDEX TREND,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS WITH A HEAT INDEX VALUE NEAR 100. WHILE WE
WON'T REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST AREAS, THE CUMULATIVE NATURE
OF THE DAILY HEAT AND SLOWER FALL IN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD STILL LEAD
TO SOME HEALTH RELATED ISSUES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD.
BESIDES A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTED ANY SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...05
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