940
FXUS63 KFSD 311752
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF I-29 WHERE SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. EFFICIENT RAINFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN IN A FEW
SPOTS.
- NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY,
LOCALLY UP TO 45 MPH OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. FOR NEXT WEEK, SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES WILL RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES AND ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALLOWING SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. THE
MOST FOCUSED WILL BE EAST OF I-29 WHERE SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST
NEUTRAL. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY MINIMAL, A FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 14000 FT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL. AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER, WHILE SKIES WILL
CLEAR IN CENTRAL SD TODAY, CLOUDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST
IN SOUTHWEST MN, NORTHWEST IA AND FAR EAST CENTRAL SD KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST, STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
FILL IN BEHIND WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH LIKELY TODAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS A QUIET WEEKEND IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
BRULE, GREGORY, AND CHARLES MIX COUNTIES. DAMAGING WINDS TO 65
MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS LOCALLY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER RISKS LOOKS
TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
LIES, BUT STILL BE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. ELSEWHERE, THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY WORKED OVER AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER
IS LESS LIKELY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
WHERE WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S OUT AHEAD
OF THIS EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, WITH THE CURRENT
RAIN AND CLOUDS MOVING IN AND GROWING INCREASINGLY THICKER IN
THOSE AREAS, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING THERE
AS WELL. THERE'S ALSO SOME CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, SO THIS WILL BE ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ANY ACTIVITY THERE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE NIGHT, THE MAIN WAVE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF I-29 BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALL COMBINE TO KEEP RAIN AND SOME STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO THIS
WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING PRIMARILY IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS, SO BE SURE
TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. FOR THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA THOUGH,
THIS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS GENERALLY
BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HIGHER POCKETS OF 4+ INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THAT WILL
BE FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THAT SAME
AREA. WITH RECENT DRYNESS, THOSE RAINFALL TOTALS WON'T BE MUCH OF A
CONCERN FOR RURAL AREAS. BUT URBAN AREAS COULD SEE SOME FLASH
FLOODING WITH THAT KIND OF RAINFALL, SO THAT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN TONIGHT. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE AREA, SO IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT MAINLY
EAST OF I-29 FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WE'LL DRY THINGS OUT HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
50S BY SATURDAY MORNING! IF CLOUDS TAKE A LITTLE BIT LONGER,
WE'LL STILL LIKELY SEE SOME 50S WEST OF I-29, IT'S JUST THAT
PLACES EAST OF THERE WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR THE LATEST MAY ONLY DROP
TO THE LOWER 60S. SO STILL MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN! DRY
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A
PLEASANT SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON
SUNDAY, MAKING FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE HOTTER, THOUGH NOT NEARLY
AS HOT AS IT HAS BEEN. ONLY SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A
SHOT OF REACHING 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, BUT HEAT INDICES THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE AIR TEMPERATURE. AFTER
FRIDAY, OUR NEXT CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE RAIN/STORMS WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. NOT A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK INTO DETAILS GIVEN THE FOCUS ON
TODAY AND TONIGHT'S FORECAST, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK, THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN LOW. IT DOES
LOOK LIKELY THOUGH THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN BEHIND THIS FRONT, MAKING FOR AN OVERALL PLEASANT FIRST WEEK
OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL
IOWA. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY EAST OF MN/IA
HIGHWAY 61 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY TAKE THE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE AREA AS IT
DEPARTS.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE CLEARING SKIES
AND WET GROUNDS, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY OCCUR WHERE WINDS
CAN GO NEAR CALM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE LOW FOG POTENTIAL, VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY PUSH
40 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...08
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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