200
FXUS63 KFSD 012316
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
616 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF I-29. ANY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING, IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. THESE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-29 TONIGHT WHERE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS WILL RESIDE.
SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO THE 80S TO LOW 90S. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
A BIT MORE FOR THE DAY, RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 20-35
MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR WEST OF I-29, AN ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. AFTER A BREEZY SUMMER DAY, AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FOR THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70F.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE
SITUATED WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME BUT THIS
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WILL BE
IN PLACE, CREATING A LARGE CAP. THE LATEST REFS SUPPORTS THIS AS IT
SHOWS A STRAIGHT 100% CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN) VALUES
OF -100 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ELEVATED
PORTION OF THE FRONT. TOUGH TO SAY IF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS EVEN THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT MAY
RESIDE JUST AHEAD OF THE GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR. SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
THE ELEVATED FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE ELEVATED
FRONT, RAIN LOOKS TO PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
TUESDAY. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS AS THEY SHOW A 30-70% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO RESIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORM CHANCES AT BAY. CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER THOUGH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, DOWN TO THE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA.
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE COMPLETELY
EXITING THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN IN
THE 70S BEFORE HIGHS WARM BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
UNCERTAIN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASING VARIANCE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. BUT IF LATEST TRENDS OF BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HOLDS, THEN RAIN CHANCES COULD PERHAPS
INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD OF TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP AS A RESULT, MOSTLY ALONG WATER WAYS AND LOW AREAS. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT WILL BE OBSCURED PARTIALLY BY
WILDFIRE SMOKE. SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN ALOFT AND NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
OPERATIONS. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONGER WINDS SPREAD
EAST THROUGH THE DAY, GUSTING 20-30 KTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-29. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TO
THE EAST GUSTS ARE MUCH LOWER AT 20 KTS OR LESS. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...AJP
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