601
FXUS63 KFSD 302352
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
652 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE U.S. HIGHWAY-20
CORRIDOR IN NORTHWESTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH ARE EXPECTED, BUT TOTALS
NEARING 0.50 INCH MAY PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IDA
AND POSSIBLY WOODBURY COUNTIES.
- DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH ONLY VERY
MINOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS KEEPING THE HEAVIER RAIN
TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ONLY BRING ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF WOODBURY AND IDA COUNTIES WITH THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWING
ABOUT A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED 1 INCH OF RAIN, THE EC
PROBABILITIES A LITTLE HIGHER. WITH 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN NEEDED TO
MAKE ANY IF THE RIVERS REALLY MOVE UPWARDS, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
VERY MINIMAL.
FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
FOR NOW THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATED LAYER
IS MUCH SHALLOWER, SO A BETTER CHANCE TO BURN OFF MORE QUICKLY IN
THE MORNING. A SURGE OF DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS.
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THIS
WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH DRY AIR BELOW ABOUT 800 MB. SOME
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAY SEE THE NEED TO ADD SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW IN THIS
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITHOUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY, SATURATION LOOKS TO
OCCUR BELOW THE DGZ SO RAINFALL WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WITHOUT THE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE VERY MINOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT AGAIN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FIGHTING DRIER AIR
WITH THE WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH. ONE THING THAT THIS WAVE WILL BRING
IS MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA. LOOKING AT HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS MORE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT,
BRINGING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT ALSO A FEW POCKETS OF IFR.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD IFR CONDITIONS TO KSUX AT THIS
TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT.
THIS RAIN SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST HEADING INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH CHANCES
REMAIN LOW (AROUND 30%) FOCUSED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA JUST NORTH OF
WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN ENDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY PICKING
UP FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WINDS
COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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