677
FXUS63 KFSD 020412
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1112 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH ONLY VERY MINOR CHANCES (<20%) FOR SHOWERS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
STILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF I-29 THIS EVENING
WITH SOME RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
GROUND. EAST OF THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
INTO THE REGION, EXPECT A NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS ALONG WITH A BIT OF
A CHILL IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S,
THOUGH A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER-30S. STILL LOOKING AT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR FROST
TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
HAVE BEEN RUNNING MOSTLY AS EXPECTED. THUS, WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN AREAS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. AND SO WINDS FROM ABOUT CHAMBERLAIN TO GREGORY COULD
GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
DECREASING AS YOU HEAD EAST. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BRING THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
SOUNDINGS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITHIN THIS CLOUD LAYER, BUT DRY AIR BELOW WILL REDUCE ANYTHING
THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND TO JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. DID RAISE
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRIDAY IN MOST
AREAS SINCE WE OVER PERFORMED A BIT TODAY DESPITE SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION. AND UNLIKE TODAY, WE'LL SEE THE RETURN OF
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SO THE NBM COULD BE RUNNING A BIT TOO
COOL. REGARDLESS, IT SHOULD BE A COOL DAY ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS WHICH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME OF THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S THERE TO THE
MIDDLE 60S IN SOUTH- CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
COOL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT LEADING TO LIGHTER
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. MAY BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SO THAT
COULD OFFSET SOME OF THE POTENTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE DOES SNEAK DOWN TO ABOUT 36 IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS, BUT FOR NOW EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 38 OR
HIGHER WITH LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR AND WEST OF I-29. SO, NOT A ZERO
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST, BUT TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECTING SOME COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF I-29, THEN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S GIVEN THE EXPECTED 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MORE CONSISTENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WHILE SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE,
BRINGING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A SERIES OF WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH SHOW
WAVES MOVING BY TO THE NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF FORCING SCRAPING
BY THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WITH EACH WAVE COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR LEAVES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER WILL BE NORTH OF I-90 WHERE BETTER MID
LEVEL SATURATION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES,
BUT MOST LIKELY VIRGA TO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO START THE PERIOD WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN WE'LL SEE WINDS THAT COULD
GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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