540
FXUS63 KFSD 021126
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEW
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERHEAD. WITH
LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE, A COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND FAR EASTERN SD
POTENTIALLY WAKING UP TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER,
THESE CONDITIONS WON'T LAST LONG AS INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
HELP TEMPERATURE INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE DAY.
LOOKING ALOFT, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN A WEAK WAVE
THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A FEW SPRINKLES. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS, THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE PROFILE TO CREATE A FEW SPITS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR. UPDATED OUR POPS TO REFLECT THIS
LINE OF THINKING. OTHERWISE, A LIFTING WARM FRONT BY SATURDAY COULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOW TO MID 70S MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY-81. LASTLY, ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON, ANY RESULTING ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
COOL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT LEADING TO LIGHTER
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. MAY BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SO THAT
COULD OFFSET SOME OF THE POTENTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE DOES SNEAK DOWN TO ABOUT 36 IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS, BUT FOR NOW EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 38 OR
HIGHER WITH LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR AND WEST OF I-29. SO, NOT A ZERO
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST, BUT TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECTING SOME COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF I-29, THEN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S GIVEN THE EXPECTED 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNING SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MORE CONSISTENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WHILE SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE,
BRINGING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A SERIES OF WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH SHOW
WAVES MOVING BY TO THE NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF FORCING SCRAPING
BY THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WITH EACH WAVE COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT DRY AIR LEAVES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION POTENTIAL. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER WILL BE NORTH OF I-90 WHERE BETTER MID
LEVEL SATURATION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. TAKING A LOOK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS
MORNING MAINLY WEST OF I-29. A FEW POCKETS OF EMBEDDED SPRINKLES
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR. BESIDES THAT, A STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF LLWS AT KFSD AND KHON. LASTLY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20-30 MPH POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...05
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