348
FXUS63 KFSD 030810
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
310 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY SURFACE WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. AN ISOLATED POCKET OF
HIGHER (45+ MPH) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN
THROUGH LATE MORNING.
- A FEW SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWER ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
- MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEW
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH MANY AREAS WAKING UP TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE DAY CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. STARTING THE WINDS, A TIGHTENING SPG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS. WITH SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (40-50 MPH) DEVELOPING IN OUR
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES, DECIDED TO
ISSUE A SHORT-FUSE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN AND
FAR EASTERN SD FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO
SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS!
OTHERWISE, INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE DAY. LASTLY, A FEW SPRINKLES TO
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF I-90 AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STARTING AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING. WITH
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, WENT AHEAD AND STRIPPED OUT
CATEGORICAL POPS IN FAVOR OF MORE SPRINKLES SINCE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. LASTLY, LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: MID-LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED WARM
ADVECTION ON THE 700:600 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST. SATELLITE SHOWERS INCREASING CLOUD GROWTH NORTH OF I-90,
SO ANTICIPATING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS CLOUD COVER EASTWARD, FOCUSED PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-90
TOWARDS HIGHWAY 14 (HURON, BROOKINGS, MARSHALL) INTO VERY EARLY
EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
TONIGHT: LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING AN INCREASED SPG TO KEEP A
RATHER BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE AREA. UNLIKE FRIDAY,
MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST GUSTS MAY BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY CRAWLS EAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE CWA.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONGER MIXING FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 40+ MPH GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
(HIGHEST IN THE RIDGE AREAS). WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND DEEP MIXING WE SHOULD SEE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POPULATED NBM SITS AT THE 75TH
PERCENTILE, BUT WITH THE INCREASED MIXING AND WARM LOW-LVLS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS A BIT WARMER AND HAVE NUDGED US
INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN A FEW AREAS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEW
POINTS SLIGHTLY. THE ARRIVAL A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE BY MID AFTERNOON
COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SW MINNESOTA IN
THE EVENING. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE PATCHY FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS WEAKEN.
SUNDAY: COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY, FEATURING
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD BE AN ABSOLUTELY
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
MONDAY-FRIDAY: A VERY QUIET FORECAST REMAINS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE CONUS FORCES STRONGER JET STREAM
ENERGY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW
FORCING ANY MEANINGFUL GULF AIR AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND NO ABILITY
TO BRING ANY TROPICAL AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC, WE'RE EXPECTING A
DRY WEEK. IN FACT THE LATEST GEFS/ECE ENSEMBLES PAINT LESS THAN A
20% CHANCE FOR >0.10" OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK
FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEK. A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY MARKS THE
FIRST DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FAVORED TO
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE REGION, AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THOSE BREEZIER DAYS EVEN WARMER.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE WEEK, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE ARRIVAL
OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
COTEAU DES PRAIRIES. THIS IS WHERE GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 KTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF A SHOWER CAN DEVELOP
DURING THAT TIME FRAME (<20% CHANCE). STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ELSEWHERE
WILL RANGE TOP OUT AROUND 30 KTS. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO RESULT IN LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
DIRECTION-WISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH A SECONDARY PEAK OF GUSTS TO 25
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SAMET
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