735
FXUS63 KFSD 081723
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. MAKE SURE TO
LIMIT ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CREATE A SPARK!
- A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY MONDAY WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
RAIN CHANCES (30%-50%) THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS PERSISTS AS
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THIS MORNING. WHILE
A FEW EMBEDDED SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP AS MID-LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING
STRENGTHEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK, A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS, ADDED IN A FEW SPRINKLES TO POPS THROUGH 12Z USING A
BLEND OF THE RAP13 AND GFS MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
COTEAU DES PRAIRIES. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE MOST CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 70S. WITH OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO TREND TOWARDS THE NBM90TH
PERCENTILE EACH DAY, DECIDED TO BLEND IN SOME OF THE CANADIAN TO GET
AHEAD OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
FROM HERE, THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOONS RAIN CHANCES (30%-
50%). AS 850 MB FRONTAL FORCING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM
FRONT, THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND UP TO DIME
SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. NONETHELESS, SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSH
EASTWARDS BY LATE EVENING. LASTLY, BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY
AS FALL HARVESTING ACTIVITIES CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS. THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SO GET THERE AND ENJOY
IT! LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO JUST ABOUT 50F
OVERNIGHT.
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND
QUIET CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
WINDS WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT STILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 MPH OR SO. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND
STRENGTHENS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). THE WAA WILL STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MINOR INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE. WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE AND
LIFT IN PLACE, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS ON
THE TABLE. CHANCES (20-50%) FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES RESIDING EAST OF I-29. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FURTHER WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WARM HIGHS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINALLY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE DUE
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE 60S. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES AS THEY SHOW AN 80-100% CHANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT AND ABOVE 60F. WITH SUCH WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN PLACE, THEY COULD RIVAL RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON GOING FORWARDS.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ALOFT ON SATURDAY,
LEADING TO THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 30-40 MPH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AS IT SHOWS
A 50-90% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 MPH. THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL
BE MET WITH LOWER DEW POINTS, DOWN TO THE 50S. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT
IN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO ABOUT 30-40% ACROSS THE AREA. THE
LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO RESIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. COULD SEE HUMIDITY VALUES FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
WITH STRONGER WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITY IN PLACE,
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL IS FUELS. RECENT RAINFALL HAS KEPT
GRASSES GREEN SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH DRIER FUELS GET HEADING
INTO SATURDAY. SLOWLY WEAKENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN PLACE, WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE
VARIANCE IN HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN THE FRONTS PROGRESSION TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED.
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LARGE VARIANCE IN HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THE ENSEMBLES PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE
TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BEFORE EJECTING
EASTWARDS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE PLAINS. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-50%
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTAL TO EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES COMING NEXT WEDNESDAY. DETAILS CAN STILL CHANGE BUT
THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT MORE RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING. THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND NIGHT. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS.
NORTHWEST IOWA HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SEEING STORMS.
THAT SAID, HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF RAIN IN KSUX'S TAF BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY
STORM THAT FORMS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF FOG WERE TO FORM, IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TO END
THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
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