731
FXUS63 KFSD 110318
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1018 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT REMAIN ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING COOLER, NEAR SEASONABLE,
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WHILE A 30-60% CHANCE FOR RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, DETAILS
REGARDING THIS CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN STILL CHANGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUST OVER 20 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SATELLITE
AND REGIONAL OBSERVATION NETWORKS SHOWING GOOD PROGRESS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS FRONT WILL SINK INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS
AND A VERY SMALL UPWARDS DIURNAL CLIMB.
FURTHER EAST, A VERY WARM OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED, WITH GOOD
PROBABILITIES WE'LL FINISH THE DAY WITH RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT,
THROUGH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF LOW LVL WINDS REMAINS FOCUSED
MORE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS MAY
MEAN THAT ANY GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WOULD BE FOCUSED ONLY IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MORE TRICKY
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT ON A WARM START, BUT ALSO CLOUD
COVER. SHORT TERM CAMS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM YANKTON TO BROOKINGS. THE BEST
MIXING IN NW IOWA COULD PROMOTE NEAR 90 TEMPS.
THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES INTO NW IOWA EARLY IN THE
EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT ENOUGH MID-LVL SUPPORT
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-40 MPH WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO 25-
35%. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FIRE DANGER CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS HAVE WARMED TO THE 80S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BREAKING INTO THE LOW 90S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW RECORDS
BROKEN BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE
WINDS REMAIN STEADY TO SLOWLY WEAKENING FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE MORE NOTICEABLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME AS
WELL, PUTTING AN END TO THE FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, A
TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT (SPG) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE
60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD WARM LOW
TERRITORY.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUCH NICER DAY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE MARGINALLY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THANKS TO THE THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THANKFULLY, THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING DOWN TO
THE 50S AND 60S.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY, LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S, 70S, AND 80S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEAK OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY-14. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROAD 50-90% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. THEIR
PROBABILITIES QUICKLY DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO FOR AMOUNTS TO EXCEED A
TENTH OF AN INCH. RAINFALL CHANCES (15-30%) WILL BE HIGHEST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. WITHE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
VARIANCE IN HOW THIS UPPER WAVE WILL EVOLVE. SOME SHOW THE WAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARDS WHILE OTHERS SHOW A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF THE MEAN FLOW. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO REFLECT
THESE POSSIBILITIES AS WELL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVING THE WAVE
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS WHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES SHOW A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING. EACH OF THESE MODELS
RESPECTIVE MACHINE LEARNING (ML) COUNTERPARTS ALSO SHOW THE SAME
EVOLUTION. LOOKING TO THE CLUSTERS SHOWS THAT THE MOST FAVORED
CLUSTER HAS THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND DETACHING FROM THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT. THAT SAID, THE MOST FAVORED CLUSTER HAS THIS CLOSED LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A
MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION, DID NOT WANT TO STRAY FROM THE NBM'S POPS
(30-60% CHANCE) AT THIS TIME AS CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS
EVOLUTION REMAINS POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE IN
THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS BROADER TROUGHING MAY ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD
THIS PLAY OUT, THEN HIGHS MAY FALL TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS HON AFTER
DAYBREAK, SLOWLY CRAWLING EAST DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25
MPH.
ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
BY LATE AFTERNOON A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-UPR CLOUD DECK WILL
ARRIVE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NW IOWA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 10: KFSD: 88/1928 KSUX: 92/1928 KHON: 92/1928 KMHE: 93/1928
OCTOBER 11: KFSD: 90/2015 KSUX: 91/2015 KHON: 91/1910 KMHE: 95/1910
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 10: KFSD: 64/1928 KSUX: 66/1930 KHON: 60/1947
OCTOBER 11: KFSD: 67/1997 KSUX: 66/1997 KHON: 68/1997
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...DUX
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...DUX
CLIMATE...DUX
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