985
FXUS63 KFSD 110913
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
413 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AND MONDAY, BRINGING COOLER, NEAR SEASONABLE, TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WHILE A 30-60% CHANCE FOR RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, DETAILS
REGARDING THIS CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN STILL CHANGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF A COOL FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS
OF 4 AM. A FEW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE COULD SEE A GREATER
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF I-29 THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ALONG
WITH THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COOL FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
OUR FAR WEST IN THE 70S TODAY, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 81 WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. RECORD
HIGHS ARE GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90F, AND WITH THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE HIGHS NEAR 90 IN A FEW AREAS FOR TODAY, WILL
AGAIN HAVE TO MONITOR FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGHS.
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TIMING OF THE
FRONT PROGRESSION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS, AND LOCATIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD/THICKER CLOUD COVER. FOR
THIS REASON, DID NOT ALTER THE LATEST NBM HIGHS WHICH RANGE FROM
UPPER 60S IN OUR FAR WEST TO UPPER 80S IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA. HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD BE
EVEN TIGHTER THAN CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE BROAD ENSEMBLE MEAN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-40 MPH WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO 25-
35%. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FIRE DANGER CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS HAVE WARMED TO THE 80S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BREAKING INTO THE LOW 90S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW RECORDS
BROKEN BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE
WINDS REMAIN STEADY TO SLOWLY WEAKENING FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE MORE NOTICEABLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME AS
WELL, PUTTING AN END TO THE FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, A
TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT (SPG) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE
60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD WARM LOW
TERRITORY.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUCH NICER DAY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE MARGINALLY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THANKS TO THE THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THANKFULLY, THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING DOWN TO
THE 50S AND 60S.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY, LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S, 70S, AND 80S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEAK OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY-14. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROAD 50-90% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. THEIR
PROBABILITIES QUICKLY DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO FOR AMOUNTS TO EXCEED A
TENTH OF AN INCH. RAINFALL CHANCES (15-30%) WILL BE HIGHEST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. WITHE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
VARIANCE IN HOW THIS UPPER WAVE WILL EVOLVE. SOME SHOW THE WAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARDS WHILE OTHERS SHOW A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF THE MEAN FLOW. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO REFLECT
THESE POSSIBILITIES AS WELL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVING THE WAVE
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS WHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES SHOW A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING. EACH OF THESE MODELS
RESPECTIVE MACHINE LEARNING (ML) COUNTERPARTS ALSO SHOW THE SAME
EVOLUTION. LOOKING TO THE CLUSTERS SHOWS THAT THE MOST FAVORED
CLUSTER HAS THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND DETACHING FROM THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT. THAT SAID, THE MOST FAVORED CLUSTER HAS THIS CLOSED LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A
MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION, DID NOT WANT TO STRAY FROM THE NBM'S POPS
(30-60% CHANCE) AT THIS TIME AS CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS
EVOLUTION REMAINS POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE IN
THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS BROADER TROUGHING MAY ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD
THIS PLAY OUT, THEN HIGHS MAY FALL TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS HON AFTER
DAYBREAK, SLOWLY CRAWLING EAST DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25
MPH.
ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
BY LATE AFTERNOON A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-UPR CLOUD DECK WILL
ARRIVE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NW IOWA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 10: KFSD: 88/1928 KSUX: 92/1928 KHON: 92/1928 KMHE: 93/1928
OCTOBER 11: KFSD: 90/2015 KSUX: 91/2015 KHON: 91/1910 KMHE: 95/1910
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 10: KFSD: 64/1928 KSUX: 66/1930 KHON: 60/1947
OCTOBER 11: KFSD: 67/1997 KSUX: 66/1997 KHON: 68/1997
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...DUX
CLIMATE...JH
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