930
FXUS63 KFSD 120350
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG MAY BUILD INTO THE BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, BUT BE PREPARED TO FOLLOW THE NECESSARY
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD IT DEVELOP.
- EXTREME TEMPERATURE RANGES MONDAY: A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL
CREATE A SHARP CONTRACT IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY. 50S ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR HURON, WHILE THE 80S WILL BE LIKELY NEAR SIOUX
CITY/STORM LAKE.
- DRY MID-WEEK WITH RAIN RETURNING THURSDAY: NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN BY THURSDAY WITH A 60% PROBABILITY OF GREATER
THAN 0.10" OF RAIN BY FRIDAY.
- TURNING COLDER: TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND FALL BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MAY
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN SOON BEFORE STALLING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AS LOCATIONS
TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LOOK TO SEE LOWS FALL
TO THE 50S WHILE AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA, WILL SEE MILD LOWS IN THE 60S. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE STRATUS
SHOULD STAY ELEVATED, SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE IS
CURRENTLY SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE RIDGE UP INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA, SO WILL WATCH TRENDS IN THIS FOGS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA, AND NORTHWEST IOWA AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT WILL
FULLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL SEE COOLER HIGHS, ONLY WARMING TO THE 60S AND
70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE STILL REMAINS THE CHANCE (15-20%) FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING BEFORE ANY CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIMEFRAMES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY,
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE NORTHERLY
WINDS FOR THE DAY, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE IN
THE 60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE 80S. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM GREGORY TO NEAR HURON AND NORTH OF
WATERTOWN. NORTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ARE DOING WHAT THEY LIKE TO
DO AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WILL STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO LATE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS SLIDING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF RECORDS IN MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN
25 MPH IN NW IOWA COULD PROMOTE ELEVATED AGRICULTURAL RELATED FIRE
RISKS TO SUNSET.
TONIGHT: MY CONFIDENCE IS RISING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SLIPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH JUST HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST IS STILL IN QUESTION. SHOULD THE FRONT REACH INTO NW IOWA
AND NE NEBRASKA, THEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLER AIR MAY DRAIN
SOUTHEAST KNOCKING TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. ANTICIPATING STRATUS TO REFORM LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS FROM GREGORY TO BROOKINGS AND MARSHALL WHERE COOL AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAIN.
MONDAY: WE'RE LIKELY TO START THE DAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS IN
THE CWA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SE AS SIOUX FALLS. A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS MID-MORNING TO MID-DAY WILL ACCOMPLISH
TWO TASKS, LIFTING THE COLD FRONT VERY SLIGHTLY BACK NORTHWEST, BUT
ALSO PINNING IN COOLER AND MOIST AIR IN THE DRAINAGE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. THE END RESULT MAY BE AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OF THE 80S IN SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE/SPENCER, TO THE 50S
IN HURON. LATEST NBM WILL NOT CATCH THESE MESOSCALE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED AND BLENDED IN HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE GRADIENT MAY STILL BE MORE DEFINED THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. WHILE MOISTURE IS LACKING ALOFT, A FEW
SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SODAK IN THE DAY. HAVE ALSO MANUALLY PUSHED UP STRATUS
THROUGH MID-DAY WEST OF I-29.
MONDAY NIGHT: NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO TUESDAY AS QUITE A BIT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTHEAST
THIS WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 40S IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH
SOME QUESTIONS ON CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL LINGERING.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
AMPLITUDE OF MID-LVL RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY CUT OFF ENERGY IN THE FOUR
CORNERS FROM MOVING EASTWARD AS QUICK AS GUIDANCE HINTED YESTERDAY.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: THE CUTOFF ENERGY IN THE FOUR CORNERS MAY
EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH A SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH MID-LVL DPVA MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED RAIN BY THURSDAY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WITH
60-70% PROBABILITIES OF >0.10", BUT ONLY 30% PROBABILITIES OF MORE
THAN 0.50". HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SWING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE DAYS MAY COOL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
STILL SEEING MVFR/IFR STRATUS PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
STRATUS NOW COMPLETELY COVERS KHON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THINK THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARDS BUT NOT
QUITE MAKE IT TO KFSD. DO THINK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND
FOG HAS INCREASED FOR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
REMAINS ON TRACK TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA, INCLUDING KSUX, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
STRATUS, AND FOG, LOOK TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THOUGH
COULD SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSIST THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY AT KHON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TOMORROW EVENING TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...MEYERS
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...MEYERS
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