189
FXUS63 KGID 141720
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1120 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK OVERVIEW OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS: SEASONABLY-MILD/DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED/COOLER PATTERN ARRIVES MONDAY AND LASTS WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. MONDAY COULD FEATURE AN APPRECIABLE RAIN EVENT,
WITH MAYBE OUR FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON COMING INTO PLAY WED-
THURS (TONS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 7-8 RANGE!).
- BY MID-NOVEMBER STANDARDS, ALL IN ALL PRETTY DECENT WEATHER
ESPECIALLY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FRI-
SAT WILL BE PLENTY BREEZY (BUT NOT OVERLY-WINDY).
- ALTHOUGH STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRENDS TO CHANGE/EVOLVE, THE
EXPECTED MONDAY RAIN EVENT CURRENTLY HAS POTENTIAL TO DUMP A
WIDESPREAD 1-2" ACROSS OUR COVERAGE AREA (CWA).
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: SOLIDLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS MAINLY 60S
TODAY-SATURDAY, WITH A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN STARTING SUNDAY (50S)
AND PERHAPS ONLY 30S BY WED (EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THIS
COULD BE THE START OF A PROLONGED COLDER STRETCH).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
-- PRIMARY CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES WITH THIS
7-DAY FORECAST PACKAGE:
- EASILY THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WAS THAT RAIN CHANCES (POPS)
HAVE FINALLY REACHED "LIKELY" 60-80 PERCENT TERRITORY, WHICH
APPEARS VERY WARRANTED BASED ON ECMWF/GFS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MONDAY COULD BE A TRUE "WASHOUT" KIND OF DAY, AND DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE FOR OUTDOOR WORK/ACTIVITIES (COULD EVEN THREATEN OUR
OFFICIAL NOV. 18TH PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS?)
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: MOST DAY-TO-DAY HIGHS/LOWS FLUCTUATED BY NO
MORE THAN 2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST (VERY CONSISTENT).
HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY TRENDED DOWN A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES, AS SIGNS
ARE POINTING TOWARD HIGHS STRUGGLING TO ESCAPE THE 30S.
- BY FAR THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
INVOLVES THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME AND THAT POSSIBILITY FOR OUR
FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON. AS TO BE EXPECTED, THERE ARE STILL
SOME KEY MODEL DIFFERENCES (FOR ONE THING OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS THE ECMWF HAS DELAYED THE MAIN POTENTIAL "SNOW EVENT" BY
ABOUT 12 HOURS INTO THE WED NIGHT-THURS TIME FRAME). SEE BELOW
FOR A FEW MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS, BUT FROM A MESSAGING
PERSPECTIVE WE FELT IT IS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TOO EARLY TO
START "ADVERTISING" SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NEARLY A WEEK OUT, SO
HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) FOR
NOW.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 AM:
NEEDLESS TO SAY, AN EXTREMELY QUIET/TRANQUIL MID-NOVEMBER NIGHT
HAS UNFOLDED AS EXPECTED. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT THE HEART OF
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD 24 HOURS AGO HAS DEPARTED EASTWARD INTO IL. IN ITS
WAKE, BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING HAS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT IN
THE DOMINANT PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH WESTERLY WINDS MAINLY
3-8 MPH CURRENTLY PREVAILING. TEMPERATURE-WISE, ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE A PERFECTLY-IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP GIVEN THE
LIGHT WEST BREEZES AND SOME PASSING PATCHES OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS, THIS IS NONETHELESS LIKELY GOING TO BE THE CHILLIEST
NIGHT OF THE MONTH-SO-FAR, WITH LOWS IN MOST PLACES ON TRACK TO
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 28-32, AND SOME LOCALIZED MID 20S LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN LOWER/MORE SHELTERED SPOTS.
- TODAY:
OVERALL LARGELY SEASONABLY-PLEASANT/GUARANTEED DRY AS BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT. WHILE SKIES
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY STILL STILL FEATURE SOME
TRANSIENT, LIMITED PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, ANY OF THIS
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOSTLY DEPART/LIFT
NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. WIND-WISE, IT WILL NOT BE A TRULY CALM DAY, AND IF
ANYTHING WIND SPEEDS WERE NUDGED UP A FEW MPH. A WEAK-BUT-
EVIDENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THIS HAS THE "FEEL" OF A DAY THAT COULD
OVERACHIEVE A BIT (SUCH AS TUES DID), BUT GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
CHILLY START OPTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WITH HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE CWA AIMED 60-63 (ROUGHLY
3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).
- TONIGHT:
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR/QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE, WITH LIGHT, MAINLY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES MAINLY 5-10 MPH IN THE EVENING THEN AROUND 5
MPH OR LESS POST-MIDNIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS, ANOTHER FAIRLY DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR
CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPS END UP BEING A SMIDGE TOO WARM. THAT
BEING SAID, THE PRESENCE OF A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
SUPPORTS OUR GOING THEORY OF LOWS HOLDING UP GENERALLY 2-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, AND HAVE MOST PLACES BOTTOMING
OUT 31-35 WITH EVEN LOCALIZED COLDER SPOTS PROBABLY NO COLDER
THAN UPPER 20S.
- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH STILL HIGHLY LIKELY THAT WE REMAIN DRY, AND LIKELY THAT
SKIES REMAIN SUNNY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WE WILL AT LEAST SEE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AS OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AS PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST COMMENCE. IT'S QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT OUR WIND FORECAST MAY NEED NUDGED UP A BIT HIGHER,
BUT FOR NOW WE'RE CALLING FOR SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH/GUSTS 25-30
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ONLY MINIMAL DROP-OFF INTO THE
NIGHT HOURS AS BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST. AS FOR TEMPS, AGAIN
FEEL WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDER-DOING HIGHS, BUT DID NUDGE THEM
UP 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST, AIMING MOST PLACES BETWEEN
60-65. AS FOR FRI NIGHT LOWS, THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
LIKELY DROPPING NO COLDER THAN 40-45 MOST PLACES.
- SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (INCLUDING ECMWF) OFFER HINTS THAT PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TRY DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
FRINGES OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY, OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
DRY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIKE FRIDAY, THE DAYTIME HOURS
WILL BE PLENTY BREEZY (GUSTS AT LEAST 20-30 MPH ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SOUTHEAST HALF), BUT THIS TIME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY (ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES) AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN. AT LEAST FOR NOW, THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERALL-WARMEST DAY WE WILL PROBABLY ENJOY
FOR QUITE SOME TIME, SO BE SURE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT! HIGHS
ARE CURRENTLY AIMED 62-67 MOST AREAS, WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO MAINLY 30S BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- SUNDAY-SUN NIGHT:
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
LIKELY REMAINS DRY, AS WE RESIDE "IN BETWEEN" FORCING/LIFT FROM
ONE UPPER WAVE DEPARTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
ANOTHER POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO STILL BE CENTERED
WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MX AT SUNSET. HOWEVER, AS
THIS FEATURE BEGINS A RAPID NORTHEASTERN EJECTION TOWARD OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT, RAIN CHANCES COULD AT LEAST GET INTO OUR KS
ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE MONDAY. BACKING UP TO SUNDAY DAYTIME, IT
REALLY SHOULDN'T BE TOO BAD OF A DAY, AS ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE
AIMED A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT (MAINLY MID 50S),
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS.
- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
WILL STATE OFF THE TOP THAT WE'VE SEEN "BIG RAIN" POTENTIAL FADE
AWAY BEFORE AT THE DAY 5 FORECAST RANGE (REMEMBER LATE
SEPTEMBER?), BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW MONDAY DAYTIME-EVENING IS
STILL VERY MUCH ON TRACK TO FEATURE A WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAIN
AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BE INSISTENT ON TRACKING A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW/VORTICITY MAX ALONG A TRACK FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE UP TOWARD EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA, ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PERHAPS DOWN TO AROUND 985-990
MILLIBARS. THIS PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEES STRONG WINDS FOR OUR
REGION (GUSTS PROBABLY 40+ MPH?), AND PRECIP TYPE IS PRETTY
SOLIDLY LOOKING TO BE ALL RAIN BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND
EXPECTATION OF HIGH TEMPS AT LEAST UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. WHILE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT, FORTUNATELY
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY MEAGER. AGAIN
FAR TOO SOON TO "TAKE TO THE BANK", BUT IF TRENDS HOLD WE'D BE
LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAIN EVENT. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF OUR
AREA HAS ENJOYED SOME ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL LATELY FOR A CHANGE,
THE FACT THAT WE'LL STILL HAVE SEVERAL DRY DAYS BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES DIMINISHES MUCH CONCERN IN FLOODING POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME.
TURNING TO LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST, IN THEORY KEEPING
MOST OF TUES DAYTIME-NIGHT DRY BUT SEASONABLY-CHILLY, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 40S.
- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
AS IS OH-SO-TYPICAL, THIS DAY 7-8 FORECAST RANGE IS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY REAL DETAIL REALLY STARTS TO FADE, BUT WANT TO
MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT WE MIGHT HAVE OUR FIRST SNOW EVENT OF
THE SEASON ON OUR HANDS. ABOUT THE ONLY "SURE THING" AT THIS
POINT IS THAT IT WILL BE COLDER (DAYTIME HIGHS PROBABLY 30S-LOW
40S AT BEST) AND THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S. ONE OF THE BIG UNCERTAINTIES THAT
WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE WHETHER WE GET A "DECENT" SNOW EVENT
(PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES?) VERSUS A MINOR ONE/NON-EVENT WILL BE
THE YET-TO-BE DETERMINED INTERPLAY BETWEEN ONE OR MORE
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE PARENT
TROUGH. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH (AGAIN MAJOR GRAIN OF SALT STUFF
THIS FAR OUT), THE 00Z GFS TENDS TO FAVOR MORE SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR WED, WHILE THE ECMWF MORE SO LEANS TOWARD WED NIGHT-
THURSDAY. WE'LL BE DISCUSSING THESE WINTRY POSSIBILITIES WITH
INCREASING FREQUENCY (AND EVENTUALLY MORE DETAIL) OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK, SO FOR SOMETHING THAT FAR OUT IN TIME
WE'LL CALL THIS GOOD ENOUGH FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KTS THIS EVENING,
BECOMING VERY LIGHT AROUND 15/06Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS AROUND 15/16Z.
INTERMITTENT CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERMITTENT AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
THAT THE TAFS ARE LEFT SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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