066
FXUS63 KGID 151216
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, BREEZY/WINDY, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A DEEP AND UNSEASONABLY MOIST
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE QUITE VARIED FROM LOWER-WEST, TO
HIGHER-EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST GRAND ENSEMBLE GIVES THE
ENTIRE AREA OVER A 60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.50", AND MOST
AREAS ALONG/E OF HWY 183 OVER 50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1".
HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE E/SE OF THE TRI-CITIES WHERE
PROBS FOR OVER 1.5" ARE AT LEAST 50% AND REASONABLE HIGH END
AMOUNTS (90TH PERCENTILE) EVEN APPROACH 2.50"!
- THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COLDER AIR TO WORK WITH FOR
POSSIBLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN MODEL QPF OVER RECENT RUNS, SO
IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS VERY UNLIKELY. OF GREATER
CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
MOST OF THE IMPACTFUL WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD - PARTICULARLY MON/MON NIGHT AND WED(ISH).
PRIOR TO THIS ACTIVE PERIOD, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE MILD AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REALLY INCR OUT OF THE SE BY
THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH AND AT LEAST 50% CHANCE FOR
PEAK GUSTS >35 MPH. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW
AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS A SOLID 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL - HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS TONIGHT ONLY IN THE
40S. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW (2-4 HRS)
MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS WILL DECR
SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS AND TEMPS REMAIN MILD,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS AROUND AND W OF THE TRI- CITIES. THIS
WILL BE THE MOST OPTIMAL TIME OF THE WEEKEND TO GET SOME OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DONE (E.G. PUT UP HOLIDAY LIGHTS?). THERE IS A
10-15% CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE BELOIT-
HEBRON AREAS SAT AFTN, BUT BETTER CHANCES REMAIN FURTHER E/SE.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS WE'LL BE BEHIND
A PACIFIC-BASED COLD FRONT (SO COOLER, BUT HIGHS STILL IN THE
50S), BUT AHEAD OF THE EARLY WEEK RAIN-MAKER. WINDS WILL BE LGT,
SO SUN IS NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY TO GET SOME THINGS DONE, EITHER.
A VERY LARGE, DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
DESERT SW AND ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SUN NIGHT, BUT ESP. ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A DISTINCT PACIFIC (DARE I SAY
"SUBTROPICAL"?) VIBE TO IT, SO FORTUNATELY (IMO), NO COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH. THUS, EXPECT ENTIRELY LIQUID PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, SEVERAL THINGS JUMP OUT AT ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM. FIRST AND FOREMOST...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT,
LATEST EPS PWAT ANOMALIES TOP OUT IN THE +4 TO +5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS RANGE, WHICH IS EXTREME. IT'S HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR
>1.5" PWATS TO REACH A LATITUDE OF I-80 IN E NE/IA THIS LATE
INTO NOVEMBER, BUT THAT'S WHAT'S CURRENTLY MODELED. DON'T HAVE
SIGNIFICANT REASONS TO DOUBT THESE VALUES AS THE GENERAL TREND
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN FOR
HIGHER MOISTURE FURTHER N AND W. VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE FUELED BY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH -2
TO -3 STD DEV UPPER LOW, AND STRONG SFC LOW AROUND 990 MB, WHICH
IS ALSO NEAR -3 STD DEVS. THE MEAN LOW TRACK AMONGST THE 3 MAJOR
ENSEMBLES IS DECENT AGREEMENT OF ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR, WHICH WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE SE HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO GET IN ON A "ONE- TWO" PUNCH OF THE
ELEVATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WAA) PRECIP AHEAD OF THE LOW, AS
WELL AS THE DEFORMATION PRECIP TO THE NW OF THE LOW.
GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN
PLAY, WIDESPREAD 2"+ LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITHIN THE MAX QPF
AXIS, WHICH AGAIN, SHOULD INCLUDE AT LEAST FAR SE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE HIGHER
3-4" AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE MAX QPF AXIS, ESP. WITH MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THIS
FAVORS AREAS FURTHER S/SE, FROM OKC TO KC. LATEST TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SHIFT THE OVERALL PRECIP AXIS FURTHER W/NW, PERHAPS DUE
TO MORE RAPID OCCLUSION PROCESS AS THE LOW EJECTS ONTO THE
PLAINS, AND THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
THIS LEADS TO THE GREATEST QPF UNCERTAINTY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
ESP. W OF HWY 183. STILL THINK SOME APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS ARE A
DECENT BET IN AREAS SUCH AS LEXINGTON TO ORD, AS EVIDENT BY
PROBS FOR AT LEAST 0.50" UP TO AROUND 60% ON LATEST GRAND
ENSEMBLE, BUT ONE MAY NOT HAVE TO GO TOO FAR TO THE W/NW FROM
THESE AREAS TO GET IN ON MUCH LESS MOISTURE. PROBS FOR >0.50"
DIP ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ~10-20% TOWARDS NORTH PLATTE AND
VALENTINE. ON THE FLIP SIDE, THE GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN QPF NOW
BRINGS PROBS FOR >1.00" TO ~80% FOR AREAS LIKE BELOIT AND
HEBRON, AND EVEN ~50% PROBS FOR >1.50". A REASONABLE HIGH-END
SCENARIO OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE WOULD APPEAR TO BE 2.00-2.25"
FOR THESE SAME AREAS. FOR THE TRI-CITIES, THE MOST LIKELY RANGE
(25TH-75TH PERCENTILE) IS AROUND 0.60-1.5", THOUGH TEND TO FAVOR
THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS. FROM A
HYDROLOGY PERSPECTIVE, THINK HYDRO ISSUES ARE FAIRLY UNLIKELY AS
WE REMAIN IN DROUGHT STATUS, AND FORTUNATELY, THE SYSTEM
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND FILLS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. NEARLY ALL
OF THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ~24HR WINDOW FROM 06Z MON
TO 06Z TUE. WINDS WILL BE BRZY, BUT NOT OVERLY HIGH THANKS TO
GRADUALLY FILLING/OCCLUDING SFC LOW AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW ON TUESDAY, BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE BROADER
TROUGH AXIS UNTIL THE BASE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH SOMETIME
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY-ISH). THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH
COLDER AIR TO WORK WITH (LOCALLY AND JUST UPSTREAM TO THE N/NW),
BUT LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR SIGNIFICANTLY LESS (IF ANY?)
QPF. THEREFORE, NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, SEVERAL EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS EXCEEDING 50 MPH.
NOT ALL MEMBERS ARE THIS STRONG, AND MEAN WIND GUSTS REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE...BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. FORTUNATELY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED BY THE EARLY WEEK RAINS AND COOLER TEMPS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: STRONG SE/S WINDS TODAY, LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) TONIGHT.
TODAY: VFR THROUGH THE DAY. LGT AND VRBL WINDS WILL INCR OUT OF
THE SE BY MID-AM, THEN BEC BREEZY/WINDY BY AROUND MIDDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS 14-18KT AND GUSTS 23-26KT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTN. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
TONIGHT: VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE ELEVATED WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT (SUSTAINED ~15KT, GUSTS AROUND 25KT), A
STRONG 50-55KT LLJ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS AT BOTH TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SE TO SSW
OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL 14-15Z SAT. ONLY CLOUDS
WILL BE SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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