269
FXUS63 KGID 160550
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. TYPICAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 50S.
- A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST, BRINGING SOME
QUESTION OVER HOW MUCH RAIN AREAS COULD RECEIVE.
- A SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AROUND MID-
WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. THE FORECAST IS
CURRENTLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO MODELS CONTINUING TO PUSH THE SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING WILL WANT TO BUNDLE UP AS WIND CHILLS MAY BE IN THE
TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BE THE
SYSTEM THAT IMPACTS OUR AREA ON MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. A FEW ISOLATED LOW
70S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA, TOWARD
BELOIT, KS AND HEBRON, NE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT, DOWN TO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS. A FEW UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF DAWSON, GOSPER AND FURNAS
COUNTIES.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING BEAUTIFUL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR! SATURDAY
STARTS OUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS HEADING INTO SUNRISE,
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW
60S FROM LEXINGTON TO ELYRIA AND THE MID-60S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE NICER OF THE WEEKEND DAYS FOR ANY
OUTDOOR PLANS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER A SPLIT FLOW SITUATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NORTHERN SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE
SOUTHERN SPLIT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
SPLIT WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR OUR NEXT SYSTEM. SATURDAY
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AS MORNING LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR THE ORD TO LEXINGTON AREA AND THE LOW TO MID-40S FOR
AREAS AROUND BELOIT. ALTHOUGH COOLER, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 50S. DURING THE DAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS
OF ROOKS, OSBORNE AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY, THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTIAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
SHIFTING TO LATER IN THE MORNING FOR THE ONSET ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT ON ITS PRESENT COURSE. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, WHICH HAS
BROUGHT DOWN POTENTIAL QPF VALUES IN THE WEST, AND INCREASED THEM IN
THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER CHANGES IN THE TRACK COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANGES TO FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY, WITH THE RAIN TAPERING
OFF BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE EXPECTING THIS TO
BE A RAIN EVENT.
TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY OUT AND RESET DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO LOW 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST RIVER REGION (WEST OF PIERRE AND THE MISSOURI RIVER)
OF SOUTH DAKOTA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE LATEST TREND IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY
DISRUPTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SECOND SYSTEM TO PULL IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT HAS
GONE DOWN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA TO OKLAHOMA. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD POSE DIFFICULTIES FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
TRAVELING. AT THIS TIME, WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST, NO ADEQUATE DUST
SOURCE REGION AND THE RECENT MOISTURE SHOULD SQUASH ANY CONCERNS FOR
BLOWING DUST.
THE OTHER NOTE OF CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND CHILLS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS PEOPLE HEAD OUT THE DOOR. WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO BE GUSTY, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
TEENS. A FEW AREAS MAY HAVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH DAWN.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE
AND WILL CONTINUE LLWS AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL IT MIXES OUT
AROUND 13-14Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECR AND VEER THROUGH THE
DAY AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W...BEC LGT NWRLY BY THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEKESSER
AVIATION...THIES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page