538
FXUS63 KGID 161143
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
TODAY. BREEZY TODAY (ESP. AM), LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUNDAY.
- STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST,
IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A VERY SHARP WESTERN GRADIENT TO RAIN AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH APPEARS WILL SETUP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HWY
183 AND HWY 83. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THESE AREAS.
- EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS (PER 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE) LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 0.00-0.75" IN DAWSON CO., TO AS MUCH AS 0.75-1.50" FOR
AREAS FROM BELOIT TO HEBRON. THE TRI-CITIES HAVE A 60-80%
CHANCE FOR >0.50", AND 25-50% CHANCE FOR >1".
- A SECOND SYSTEM WITHIN THE BASE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP.
CHANCES ARE NOW VERY LOW, BUT STRONG NW WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESP. OVER CENTRAL NEB.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND - MILD AND DRY.
HIGH CLOUDS AND PERSISTENTLY STRONG SRLY WINDS HAVE KEPT EARLY
AM TEMPS VERY MILD, ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR! IT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH
THE AM, BUT BY THE AFTN HRS, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER ALONG AN
APPROACHING FRONT/SFC TROUGH. SO THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HR WINDOW
THIS AFTN WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL MILD IN THE 60S, AND WINDS ARE
LIGHTER AROUND 5-15 MPH, ESP. FOR AREAS NEAR/W OF HWY 281. SOME
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT 10-15% CHC FOR AN ISO SHWR OVER
FAR SE ZONES THIS AFTN, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY, AND ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S, IT
SHOULD STILL BE PLEASANT BY MID-NOV STANDARDS THANKS TO SOME SUN
AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS.
A STRONG AND VERY UNSEASONABLY MOIST SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO
IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK - MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RECORD-WORTHY
AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO BE 4-5+ STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, THE
NEW 00Z EPS EVEN MAXES OUT NEAR +6 ALONG KS/OK BORDER 12Z MON.
THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON MON, WITH THE
1.5" LINE FORECAST TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO
AREA BY 18Z. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED FOR MID-NOV, WHICH IS
ILLUSTRATED BY EXCEEDING THE MAX PERCENTILE OF THE 30YR MODEL
CLIMATE. THE FORECAST MAX PWAT VALUE OF ~1.5-1.6" AT OAX WOULD
ALSO SMASH THE NOV MONTHLY RECORD OF 1.39". IN FACT, ONLY 4
TIMES HAS A PWAT >1.3" BEEN MEASURED BY THE OAX SOUNDING IN
NOVEMBER! SO OBVIOUSLY THE SYSTEM HAS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THE DYNAMICS ARE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH A STRONG LLJ/WAA
BENEATH INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED UPPER
JET STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERTAKE A GRADUAL FILLING
PROCESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH, BUT ALSO BEC INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED WHICH SHOULD REALLY HELP TO ADVECT THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION PRECIP SHIELD.
FORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM IS EJECTING NEWARD OUT OF N MEXICO AND
WON'T HAVE ANY COLD AIR WHATSOEVER TO WORK WITH AND THIS WILL
ALL FALL AS RAIN. IT'S ALSO FORTUNATE THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
PROGRESSIVE AS THIS WILL HELP KEEP HYDRO ISSUES OF MINIMAL
CONCERN AND THE BULK OF RAINFALL TO ONLY ~24HR PERIOD.
AS FOR TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS, THIS IS WHERE IT GETS TRICKY AND I'M
REALLY (REALLY) GLAD IT'S RAIN AND NOT SNOW. FIRST OFF, STILL
VERY CONFIDENT THAT HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR MAINLY S THROUGH
E OF THE TRI-CITIES, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND BELOIT TO HEBRON
TO YORK. THIS IS WHERE PROBS FOR >1" ARE HIGHEST AT AROUND
50-60%, AND THINK THIS CASE WARRANTS SERIOUS CONSIDERATION OF
LOCALIZED 90-95TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS GIVEN THE INSANE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT...WHICH IS ABOUT 1.75-2.25" PER
LATEST NBM. AGAIN, THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD HEAVIER AMOUNTS (3"+) AND
GREATER HYDRO CONCERNS UNLIKELY FOR OUR AREA. I STILL THINK
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) ARE ALSO IN
FOR A GOOD, SOLID RAIN WITH ROUGHLY 0.50-1.00" A STRONG POSS
GIVEN RECENT 25-75TH PERCENTILE OUTPUT. REASONABLE HIGH END
(90TH PERCENTILE) IS ~1.5", BUT LOW END COULD DIP TO AS LOW AS
0.25", ESP. FOR KEARNEY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE LOOKS TO BE A
VERY SHARP WESTERN GRADIENT TO RAIN AMOUNTS, AS EVIDENT BY
RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT. WHERE EXACTLY THIS GRADIENT
SETS UP IS UNCERTAIN, BUT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO BE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN HWY 183 AND HWY 83. EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO BE
MOST AGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS, WHEREAS THE GEFS IS CONSIDERABLY
LOWER. CANADIAN ENSEMBLE APPEARS TO BE A ROUGH COMPROMISE. THE
UNCERTAINTY COULD NOT BE MORE EVIDENT IN LATEST ENSEMBLE PLUME
OUTPUT, WHICH RANGES FROM COMPLETELY DRY TO AROUND 1.5" FOR
LEXINGTON. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN
PLAY, I TEND TO LEAN TOWARD EC/HIGHER SIDE, BUT AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND FURTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, IT APPEARS THE NEXT DECENT SYSTEM ON
WED WILL NOT ATTAIN BETTER MOISTURE UNTIL IT IS ALREADY E/SE OF
HERE OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SO THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
NOW COMPLETELY DRY. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE N PLAINS AND STRONG CAA WILL STILL PRESENT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, ESP. ON WED. AND ESP. OVER OUR
NEB COUNTIES. LATEST EPS GIVES ABOUT 70-80% CHCS FOR WIND GUSTS
>40 MPH, AND EVEN BRINGS CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH UP
TO 10-20% IN THE ORD AREA. WIND GUST DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE FROM
THE GEFS, BUT A BRIEF LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONG WINDS, WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MAX WINDS AT THE TOP OF A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AS
HIGH AS 50-55KT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AS THIS
COULD WARRANT HIGH WIND HEADLINES. FORTUNATELY, THE RECENT RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS MINIMAL.
TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY REBOUND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, TO AT LEAST 40S AND LOWER 50S. FURTHER
WARMTH CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E - SOMETIMES MODELS ARE TOO FAST TO
SHIFT THESE DEEP TROUGHS OUT AT THIS TIME RANGE (DAYS 6-8).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONGOING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE TO 50KT
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MIX OUT 13-14Z. BRZY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND
VEERING TO SW-W THIS AFTN. ADDITIONAL VEERING TO NW IS EXPECTED
THIS EVE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 6-9KT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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