642
FXUS63 KGID 162321
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
521 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WELL.
- STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A VERY SHARP WESTERN GRADIENT TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SET UP SOMEWHERE AROUND OR
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THOSE WESTERN AREAS.
- A SECOND SYSTEM WITHIN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW, BUT STRONG NW WIND GUSTS
40-55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...
THE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH A WEAK TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A WELL DEFINED TROUGH BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ELECTED TO
LEAVE A SLIGHT (15-25%) CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE COUPLE OF NEAR-TERM MODELS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS THERE,
BUT SUNDAY NIGHT REALLY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AS
OF LATE, WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS STARTING SOMEWHERE FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6AM MONDAY,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY TRICKY AND SMALL VARIATIONS
IN THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DAWSON COUNTY STILL SEEMS TO BE
THE AREA OF LEAST CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL SAYING
ANYWHERE FROM NEARLY ZERO RAINFALL TO NEARLY AN INCH. HOWEVER,
THE 12Z (LATEST FULL MODEL RUN) OF MODELS HAS INDICATED A RANGE
OF 0.25"-0.75" (FOR DAWSON COUNTY), SO OUR DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST OF JUST OVER HALF AN INCH FOR LEXINGTON SEEMS
REASONABLE...THE MAIN CHANGE FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT "TOTALLY DRY" SEEMS LESS LIKELY
(ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN DAWSON
COUNTY). MOVING FURTHER EAST IN THE FORECAST AREA, THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND OF HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MONDAY, WITH AROUND 1"-1.5" EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (THIS SHOULD BE AROUND THE AMOUNT
THE TRI-CITIES RECEIVE), AND 1.5"-2" ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81).
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWEST AND HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WHICH LOOKS TO BE NEAR HIGHWAY 183 FROM THE
LATEST FORECAST MODELS. THE BULK OF THIS LOOKS TO FALL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY STILL LINGER
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CURRENTLY WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST, BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PROBABLY START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHERE 40-50 MPH GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND TO AT LEAST THE 40S AND LOWER
50S. WARMER TEMPERATURES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DECENTLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, BUT FAR TOO EARLY TOO TELL AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE (90%) OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...MANGELS
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