474
FXUS63 KGID 171727
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER, BUT STILL SEASONABLY MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
LIGHTER WINDS, AND MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WET SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS WHERE A SHARP WESTERN GRADIENT WILL SET UP.
- HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL BUT PERHAPS THE HWY 283 CORRIDOR
WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.50", AND HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT
TRI-CITIES E & SE WILL RECEIVE AROUND 1", OR MORE, WITH SOME
OF THESE AREAS AS HIGH AS 1.50-1.75". LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS
OVER EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES AS MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH.
- MAINLY DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50+ MPH ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TODAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT LATE-FALL DAY WITH SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S, LIGHTER WINDS, AND MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WITH TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BY
MID-NOVEMBER STANDARDS REMAINS ON TRACK TO EJECT OUT OF THE
DESERT SW SUNDAY NIGHT, AND REALLY IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EARLY MON AM THROUGH LATE EVENING. NO MAJOR
CHANGES/TRENDS TO REGARDING THE BASIC "STATS" - STILL LOOKING AT
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP (-2 TO -3 STD DEV 500MB HEIGHTS) AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED (THOUGH PROGRESSIVE) UPPER TROUGH, WITH
EXTREME AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PWATS 5-6+ STD DEV!).
IN FACT, IT'S QUITE PROBABLE THAT DDC'S 12Z MON SOUNDING WILL
SAMPLE PWATS NEAR 1.5", WHICH WOULD SHATTER THE NOV MONTHLY
RECORD AND BE AKIN TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
ANNUAL MAX THAT OCCURS IN LATE JULY/EARLY AUG. IN TERMS OF THE
OBSERVED DISTRIBUTION FOR NOV., THIS SYSTEM IS "OFF THE CHARTS"
AS IT GETS FOR MOISTURE. AGAIN, THOUGH, THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE IS
QUITE PROGRESSIVE - MOST OF RAIN OCCURS IN ~18HR TIME FRAME -
AND GROUND IS STILL PRETTY DRY DESPITE SOME RECENT RAIN.
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE LIMITED, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
HYDRO ISSUES.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP WESTERN EDGE/GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
AMOUNTS AND WHERE EXACTLY THIS GRADIENT WILL BE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. EPS CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST W AND OVERALL
WETTEST FOR OUR CWA, WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF FROM
ROUGHLY DDC TOWARDS OUR TRI-CITIES. THE GEFS/NAM HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN FURTHER E, WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS FROM AROUND
ICT TOWARDS LINCOLN AND OMAHA. THE CANADIAN HAS GENERALLY BEEN
IN-BETWEEN. THIS DIFFERENCE RESULTS IN VERY HIGH MODEL SPREAD
FOR OUR FAR W COUNTIES (ROUGHLY HWY 283), WITH NBM 10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE RANGING FROM NEAR 0" TO OVER 1.50", AND ROUGHLY 1" OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE. THANKFULLY THIS SYSTEM
DOESN'T HAVE ANY COLD AIR TO WORK WITH AND WE AREN'T TALKING
ABOUT SNOW! THE SPREAD HAS GENERALLY DECR FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THANKS TO SOME WESTWARD TRENDS IN MOST RECENT 06Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS/NAM AND 00Z CANADIAN. TRI- CITIES 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE NOW RUNS FROM 0.75"-1.50", WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR
BELOIT, HEBRON TO YORK. EITHER THE EPS (WITH 50 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) IS POORLY DISPERSED, OR IT'S GOING TO SCORE A MAJOR
"WIN" OVER THE GFS/GEFS/NAM. I TEND TO THINK THE LATER. THE EPS
25-75TH PERCENTILE FOR GRI IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FROM
1.20"-1.50", FOR REFERENCE, VS 0.60"-1.75" ON THE GEFS, WITH THE
EPS HAVING 40% MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE, AS WELL AS INCOMING 06Z NAM/GFS RUNS, HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER W, WHICH LENDS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE EPS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS MON NIGHT, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS DRY. MONDAY'S SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE N PLAINS, THAT DEEPENS AGAIN MIDWEEK OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT IT'S
BEC INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50+
MPH WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY, ESP. FOR OUR NEB ZONES. 00Z
EPS MAINTAINS 60%+ PROBS FOR >34KT GUSTS N OF THE STATE LINE,
AND 20-30% PROBS FOR >50KT GUSTS N OF I-80. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR ODX SHOW A VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT PROFILE, WITH DEEP
MIXING TO AT LEAST 800MB, AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER
OF 50-55KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWN TO THE
SFC. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED BY MON PM OR TUE.
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC/NWRLY FLOW BEHIND THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
WILL KEEP OUR LOCAL PATTERN CONSIDERABLY COOLER, THOUGH STILL
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL, FOR NEXT WEEK (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S).
TEMPS MAY ATTEMPT A MODEST WARMUP INTO THE 50S FOR SOME (ESP SW
OF THE TRI-CITIES) LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT NOT
SEEING ANY SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER BEYOND WED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS
(UNTIL MORNING). MINIMAL CLOUD CLOVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY TODAY WITH BUILDING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. AFTER 12Z, THERE IS
80% CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS, 70% FOR IFR CONDITIONS & 20%
LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN COULD START AS
EARLY AS 12Z (40% CHANCE) WITH A 80% CHANCE OF RAIN BY 18Z.
WINDS TODAY WILL STAY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH, TURNING EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...STUMP
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