326
FXUS63 KGID 180606
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1206 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- 80-100% CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY WITH AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN
0.5- 1.5" AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (2"+) IN A FEW SOUTH AND
EAST SPOTS CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM CENTER.
- RAIN CHANCES START MAINLY 3-7AM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE BORDER
AND 6-10AM NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH A BULK OF PRECIPITATION
FALLING BEFORE 1-4PM AS THE WIDESPREAD UNIFORM SHOWERS SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE PATTERN ON THE SYSTEMS
BACKSIDE.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES (40S TO LOWER 50S) RETAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK FROM AN ESTABLISHED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.
- STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH TUESDAY AND 20-35 MPH GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TONIGHT...
A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ANTICIPATED MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM ON TRACK TO REACH THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE ON PACE TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY, LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER
30S IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS UP THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS STARTING SOUTH WILL SWIVEL EAST AND THEN
NORTH BY MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE.
THIS SYSTEM, CURRENTLY MATURING UNDER THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, IS ON ITS JOURNEY
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET
WINDS MIXED WITH A LIFTING TROUGH WILL SLINGSHOT THE SYSTEM
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS OUR REGION WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STARTING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL PARTS OF THE AREA.
MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (80-100%) WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS 3-7AM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF STATE BORDER AND BETWEEN 6-10AM FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY LIE
EAST WHERE THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS. OVERALL, A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF UNIFORM RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE 1-4PM
TIMEFRAME WHEN THE RAIN COVERAGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS
GREATEST EXTENT. THE COVERAGE THEREAFTER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO CATCH A RIDE UP THE WARM SECTOR
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, FEEDING IN RICH GULF BASED MOISTURE INTO THE
CYCLONE. PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 HIGHLIGHT THE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE FOR NOVEMBER
STANDARDS. DESPITE THE EXCESSIVE MOISTURE, THE QUICK PACE OF THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.5
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNT (2"+) FOR
A FEW SOUTHEASTERN SPOTS FAVORED BY THE SWATH OF THE RAIN BANDS
CLOSEST TO THE SYSTEM CENTER. IN ALL THE COVERAGE PATTERN WILL
NATURALLY CREATE A SHARP GRADIENT DROP IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER TOWARDS THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
THOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN MAJORLY RAIN SHOWERS. THE ABOVE FREEZING LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP ANY FROZEN PRECIP TYPE OUT OF THE
DISCUSSION FOR THIS EVENT.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY....
MONDAY NIGHT, THE EXITING SYSTEM TIED TO THE LIFTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN ONCOMING SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MERGING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL WIDEN THE EXTENT OF THE NOW NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER, TRAPPING COLD AIR UNDERNEATH IN THE PROCESS. NORTHWEST
ORIENTED SURFACE WINDS WILL POOL IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY FALL
WEDNESDAY AS REGIONAL HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THE
40S.
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS MIDWEEK WITH LIMITED POPS (<15%), WINDS WILL
TAKE PRECEDENT. WINDS TUESDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL RANGE 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AND BETWEEN 20-35 MPH WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE GUSTIEST OF WINDS WILL FALL MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
A TRANSITION TO A RIDGING PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK WILL SUPPRESS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS LAY THE SCENE FOR THE CONTINUATION
OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (40S TO LOW 50S) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS LOW AS THE LOWER 20S TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIVER OF
HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ITSELF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CALM THE
WINDS DOWN TO BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH
WHEN THE NEXT TRUE SYSTEM WILL TAKE PLACE AS ONLY A WEAK SIGNAL LIES
IN SOME LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
JET STREAM LOOKS TO TREND TOWARDS ZONAL FLOW, A RELATIVELY MORE
STABLE PATTERN. THE GUESS OF WHEN THE FIRST SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON
REMAINS A MYSTERY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
TREND MORE FAVORABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: LIFR CIGS, IFR VSBYS, SEVERAL HOURS OF
MODERATE RAIN, GUSTY SFC WINDS, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RATHER COMPLEX TAF PERIOD WITH A VARIETY OF AVIATION CONCERN
EXPECTED. SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT BOTH LOCATIONS FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE/FEW MORE HRS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BEC
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 08Z AT GRI, THEN LATER IN THE MORNING
AT EAR. EXACTLY WHEN AT EAR IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN VFR/IFR THAT COULD
SETUP BETWEEN THE GRI AND EAR TERMINALS FOR A FEW HRS. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WITHIN BROAD SHIELD OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BY AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL START OF LGT AND VRBL TO
NERLY 5-8KT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE RAIN, BUT THEN TURN TO
NNWRLY AND INCR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON - WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
14-19KT AND GUSTS 25-30KT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL - AND LOWEST
VSBYS - ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE ROUGHLY 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEPART SW TO NE
BETWEEN 01-04Z, AND AS IT DOES SO, VSBYS/CIGS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. STRONG NW WINDS ~15-20KT WILL CONTINUE AT THE SFC THROUGH
MON NIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUE...BUT A CORE OF STRONGER 50-55KT
FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RAIN, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LLWS AFTER 02Z. AT
LEAST MARGINAL LLWS COULD CONTINUE BEYOND THE 06Z END TIME OF
THIS TAF.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS GENERAL EVOLUTION IS HIGH, BUT AS
ALWAYS, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TIMING AND
CIGS/VSBYS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. CONFIDENCE IN WIND IS HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...THIES
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