787
FXUS63 KGID 182115
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS (30% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT END BY MIDNIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 1.40 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
RAIN MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.20 INCHES TO
AROUND 1.40 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (AROUND A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE) ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE OVER WITH BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS
ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AND WILL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM KANSAS TO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY WITH SOME 50S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S WITH CLEARING SKIES.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CANADA
ON TUESDAY. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S WITH
SOME LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL PROGRESS FROM THE AREA
BEING UNDER THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO UPPER RIDGING THEN AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
KEAR AND KGRI REMAIN ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS.
EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH IMPROVEMENT STARTING AROUND 23-02Z AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS ALOFT AROUND 2000 FT AGL WILL BE UP
AROUND 50-55 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF LLWS. THESE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD EASE MID-MORNING TOMORROW,
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...
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