157
FXUS63 KGID 191008
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
408 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
- STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45MPH.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA 0.5"
TO 1.5" OF RAIN YESTERDAY HAS EXITED NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW GRADUALLY OCCLUDES OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH,
GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
WEDNESDAY...
WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A HIGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE HIGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY THE LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 45-50MPH
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS TIGHTEST. THE EPS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY LOW (<10%) CHANCE
FOR GUSTS TO WARRANT WIND HEADLINES. VALLEY, GREELY AND NANCE
COUNTIES WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO NEED A WIND HEADLINE IF WINDS
WERE TO TREND UPWARDS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES WILL
FALL TO 20-25% ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LOWEST RH VALUES WILL ALSO OCCUR WHERE THE LEAST RAIN FELL ON MONDAY
(0.05 TO 0.30") ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT QUICKER. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAKING
FOR A COLD START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
40S (NORTHEAST) TO THE LOW 50S (SOUTHWEST).
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, PLACING THE
AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THURSDAY WILL GET OFF TO ANOTHER
COLD START WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
BELOW 20 MPH.
THIS WEEKEND...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGHING
PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS, MAKING FOR A PRETTY
PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
NEXT WEEK...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK,
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRINGING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED WELL IN THE CPC 6-10
AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS WHICH FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LLWS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE, AS SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING
LIGHT AND WESTERLY AROUND SUNSET. SCT CLOUDS AROUND 100 WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AND CLEAR OUT
TUESDAY EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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