420
FXUS63 KGID 200016
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WINDIEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE, ESPECIALLY NORTH. GUSTS AT LEAST 30-40 MPH LIKELY MUCH
OF THE DAY COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 DOWN INTO KS, BUT STRONGER
GUSTS COMMONLY 40-50 MPH COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80 (OVERALL
STRONGEST FAR NORTH IN VALLEY/GREELEY COUNTIES).
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH RECENT RAINFALL, THIS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON SOME
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR VEGETATION BEING READY TO BURN.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE MAIN STORY WITH THE FORECAST IS THE CLOSED, MID-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN MANITOBA, CANADA AND NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA. A WEAK WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HAS SPARKED VIRGA OR SPRINKLES IN THAT AREA.
THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S FOR MOST AREAS. CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT, AND WITH MORNING LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S,
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT FEEL ALL THAT PLEASANT WEDNESDAY MORNING
(TEENS).
WEDNESDAY, THE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST, ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA, PLACING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR TRAVELERS. WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-
40 MPH IN LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF HWY 281. HOWEVER,
RECENT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUT A DAMPER ON THE AVAILABILITY
OF DRY FUELS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY, RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF WINDS IN THE AREA. WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AT THEIR COLDEST.
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
BIGHORNS OF WYOMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER, PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST (UPPER 30S TO MID-40S).
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A COOL DOWN
OF TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD (ONLY LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD),
LEAVING MODERATELY-STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND OUTRIGHT-
STRONG WINDS SLIGHTLY ALOFT (RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR) BY
FAR THE BIGGEST ISSUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW.
- WINDS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
BY FAR THE LIGHTEST SPEEDS OF THE PERIOD ARE RIGHT AWAY THIS
EVENING THROUGH AROUND 08-09Z (GENERALLY AROUND 10KT FROM THE
WEST). THEN, EVEN WELL BEFORE SUNRISE, SPEEDS WILL BEGIN AN
UPTICK WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20KT/GUSTS
25-30KT. THE VERY STRONGEST WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR
ESPECIALLY 16-22Z...GENERALLY SUSTAINED AROUND 25KT/GUSTS AT
LEAST 30-35KT. FINALLY, A GRADUAL DECREASE WILL COMMENCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT EVEN THROUGH 00Z GUSTS 20+KT
REMAIN LIKELY.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUSLY-INTRODUCED LLWS GROUPS AT BOTH
KGRI/KEAR STARTING 09Z, BUT HAVE NOW EXTENDED THESE GROUPS OUT
THROUGH 16Z AND ALSO INCREASED INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. DESPITE
BREEZY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, A SURGE OF VERY STRONG WINDS TO
AROUND 50KT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS LOW AS AROUND 1K FT.
AGL WILL CREATE IN A SOLID 30-35KT OF MAINLY SPEED SHEAR
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEKESSER
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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