874
FXUS63 KGID 202233
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
433 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS
EVENING AROUND 25-35MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35-40MPH. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING.
-DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
-A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY COULD LIMITS HIGHS TO THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
-A GRADUALLY INCREASING SIGNAL FOR THE AREAS FIRST SEASON
SNOWFALL HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR DAYS 7-10.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TONIGHT(NEAR-TERM)...
WE PICK UP THE FORECAST TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 35 TO 50 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-
80 (A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN GUSTED UP TO 50-58MPH). WE HAVE SEEMED
TO PASS OVER OUR PEAK GUSTS FOR THE DAY AS WINDS ARE NOW ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND AND EXPECTED TO SHARPLY DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
THE STRONG WINDS MIXED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (15-25%)
PROMPTED THE OUT-OF-CAUTION RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) ACROSS ALL OF OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH 6PM. THOUGH THE RECENT RAIN EVENT
EARLIER THIS WEEK DEPOSITED BETWEEN 0.5 TO 2 INCHES AREAWIDE WITH
SOME SIGNS OF MOISTURE RETENTION IN THE SOILS AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MID 40S TO LOW 50S), THE HEIGHTENED WINDS WITH THE
ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF A BREAKOUT FAST SPREADING FIRE WARRANTED A
PRECAUTIONARY RFW.
THESE STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN PARTIALLY POWERED FROM THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSED PARTLY FROM THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE, WHICH
PREVIOUSLY TOOK A TRIP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESURE
CENTER IS NOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA AND WILL BE ON ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (SHORT-TERM)...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA, IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DROP ON DOWN THROUGH
THE NIGHT, SETTING UP THE SCENARIO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO
THEIR COLDEST POINT SO FAR THIS SEASON (LOW TO MID 20S). WIND CHILLS
THURSDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE TEENS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AND EVEN CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR FURTHEST NORTHERN
EXTENT (NEAR VALLEY COUNTY).
THE CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY WILL ALLOW THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN TO RETAIN. THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP SERVE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S (NORTHEAST AREAS) TO LOW 50S (SOUTHWEST AREAS).
A SLIVER OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CONTRIBUTING TO CALMER WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. THE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MID-LEVEL SINKING AIR FROM THE ONSET OF A
RIDGE, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND DRY.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL FINALLY REACH ITS END FRIDAY
WHEN SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES, WILL
BEGIN TO OVERPOWER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BOUND LOW, THE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN CONTROLLING WINDS SINCE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHS
WILL BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND (LONG-TERM)...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OUT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (30-40%) FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ZONAL FLOW, POTENTIALLY
ADDING SOME COMPLEXION TO THE FORECAST, A GENERAL DISAGREEMENT FROM
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS REVOLVES AROUND ITS LOCATION AND
MAGNITUDE. THIS UNCERTAINTY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOW.
THE ELEMENT THAT HAS BECOME MORE CLEAR IS WITH THE EXPECTED DROP IN
TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY THAT COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY BE CAUSED FROM A NORTH
ORIENTING WIND FIELD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAK PASSING CYCLONE
SUNDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION AND
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON COULD COME ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS EVENT BEING 7 DAYS OUT AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL DRIVING FORCES, THE POPS
REMAIN LOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A STRONGER SIGNAL 7-10 DAYS
OUT IN LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SIGNS OF SNOW COULD BE
GETTING CLOSER TO FINALLY BECOMING A REALITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE LEADING CONCERN TODAY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER
THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS (THROUGH 22Z). A NOTABLE DROP OFF (DOWN TO
15-20 KT GUSTS) WILL BE OBSERVED CLOSER TO SUNSET (AFTER 0Z).
THE CALMING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS TO DEVELOP SOMETIME BETWEEN THE 0-6Z TIMEFRAME THROUGH THE
9-12Z TIMEFRAME. KGRI WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LLWS FASTER THAN KEAR
AND WILL LIKELY DROP OFF SOONER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE SUNSET.
CLEAR SKIES AND FULL 10SM OF VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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