658
FXUS63 KGID 210037
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..SHORT TERM AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
-A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID 30S-LOWER 40S (NOT
OVERLY-COLD, BUT SOMETHING WE ARE DEFINITELY NOT USED TO).
-A GRADUALLY-INCREASING SIGNAL FOR THE AREA'S FIRST SEASONAL
SNOWFALL HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR ON THE HORIZON MAINLY AT THE DAY
7-10 RANGE. STILL TONS OF UNCERTAINTY AND IS MOSTLY JUST
BEYOND OUR CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A WARY
EYE ON THANKSGIVING ITSELF).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
-- REGARDING THE ON-TIME EXPIRATION OF RED FLAG WARNING:
THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHED WINDS (GUSTS DROPPING UNDER 25
MPH) AND INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY/RH (RISING SOLIDLY ABOVE
20-25 PERCENT) ALLOWED FOR THE "ON TIME" EXPIRATION OF THE RED
FLAG WARNING VALID FOR ALL OF OUR NEBRASKA COVERAGE AREA (CWA)
AT 6 PM.
FORTUNATELY, WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY WILDFIRE IGNITIONS TODAY IN
OUR CWA (WE NEVER HEARD OF ANY FROM PARTNERS AND DID NOT DETECT
ANY VIA SATELLITE TOOLS). THIS WAS FORTUNATE, CONSIDERING THAT
THE "RAW" METEOROLOGICAL COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS OFTEN 40+ MPH
AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MOST OF THE WARNING AREA
PLUNGED AS LOW AS 15-22% FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS) WAS FAIRLY
CONCERNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TONIGHT(NEAR-TERM)...
WE PICK UP THE FORECAST TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 35 TO 50 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-
80 (A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN GUSTED UP TO 50-58 MPH). WE HAVE
SEEMED TO PASS OVER OUR PEAK GUSTS FOR THE DAY AS WINDS ARE NOW
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND EXPECTED TO SHARPLY DROP OFF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE STRONG WINDS MIXED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (15-25%)
PROMPTED THE OUT-OF-CAUTION RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) ACROSS ALL OF OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH 6 PM. THOUGH THE RECENT RAIN
EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK DEPOSITED BETWEEN 0.5 TO 2 INCHES
AREAWIDE WITH SOME SIGNS OF MOISTURE RETENTION IN THE SOILS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES (MID 40S TO LOW 50S), THE
HEIGHTENED WINDS WITH THE ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF A BREAKOUT
FAST SPREADING FIRE WARRANTED A PRECAUTIONARY RFW.
THESE STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN PARTIALLY POWERED FROM THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSED PARTLY FROM THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE, WHICH
PREVIOUSLY TOOK A TRIP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESURE
CENTER IS NOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA AND WILL BE ON ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (SHORT-TERM)...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA, IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DROP ON DOWN THROUGH
THE NIGHT, SETTING UP THE SCENARIO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO
THEIR COLDEST POINT SO FAR THIS SEASON (LOW TO MID 20S). WIND CHILLS
THURSDAY MORNING WILL REACH INTO THE TEENS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AND EVEN CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR FURTHEST NORTHERN
EXTENT (NEAR VALLEY COUNTY).
THE CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY WILL ALLOW THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN TO RETAIN. THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP SERVE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S (NORTHEAST AREAS) TO LOW 50S (SOUTHWEST AREAS).
A SLIVER OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CONTRIBUTING TO CALMER WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. THE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MID-LEVEL SINKING AIR FROM THE ONSET OF A
RIDGE, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND DRY.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL FINALLY REACH ITS END FRIDAY
WHEN SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES, WILL
BEGIN TO OVERPOWER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BOUND LOW, THE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN CONTROLLING WINDS SINCE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHS
WILL BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND (LONG-TERM)...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OUT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (30-40%) FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ZONAL FLOW, POTENTIALLY
ADDING SOME COMPLEXION TO THE FORECAST, A GENERAL DISAGREEMENT FROM
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS REVOLVES AROUND ITS LOCATION AND
MAGNITUDE. THIS UNCERTAINTY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOW.
THE ELEMENT THAT HAS BECOME MORE CLEAR IS WITH THE EXPECTED DROP IN
TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY THAT COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
THIS EXPECTED DROP IN TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY BE CAUSED FROM A NORTH
ORIENTING WIND FIELD ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAK PASSING CYCLONE
SUNDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION AND
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON COULD COME ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS EVENT BEING 7 DAYS OUT AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL DRIVING FORCES, THE POPS
REMAIN LOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A STRONGER SIGNAL 7-10 DAYS
OUT IN LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SIGNS OF SNOW COULD BE
GETTING CLOSER TO FINALLY BECOMING A REALITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG, SO KEPT THE MENTION FOR LLWS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TOMORROW THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
RELAX, SO EXPECTING SFC WINDS IN THE 7-12KTS RANGE PER GUIDANCE.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...BEDA
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