929
FXUS63 KGID 211126
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
- COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
- INCREASING SUPPORT FOR THE AREA'S FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON AROUND
THANKSGIVING, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY FINER DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
TODAY...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S, WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND AN OVERALL COLD START TO THE DAY. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES, PLACING THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S
IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE NOTICABLY LIGHTER THAN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 20MPH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, HELPING HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 50S, WITH
HIGHS NEAR 60 POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERALL, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND I'D RECOMMEND TO MAKE THE
MOST OF IT BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S (NORTH) TO THE MID 50S (SOUTH).
BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK...
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE NEXT WEEK, AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISAGREE ON THE TIMING, STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGELY ZONAL FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN SCATTERED, LOW
PROBABILITY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK (NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S, LOWS 20S), WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
WHILE THERE REMAINS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE FINER DETAILS, LONG
RANGE MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE ECWMF AND IT'S ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AND A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE AREA ITS FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON. THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND THOSE
WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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