387
FXUS63 KGID 170001
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
601 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80
- ROLLER COASTER LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 30S TO THE LOW 60S
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BREEZY, GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH,
STRONGEST FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 20% ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80, WHERE
WINDS HAVE BROUGHT THE STRONGEST MIXING. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
GUSTY WINDS PERSIST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET
AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY...
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
TO START THE DAY, BUT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS OF 20-30MPH.
WEDNESDAY...
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, RESULTING IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, NEAREST TO THE TROUGH, TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-
40MPH. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
BELOW 30%. THIS DAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY ONWARDS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR ROLLER COASTER LIKE PATTERN,
AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S, A 20+ DEGREE DROP FROM
THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, AS THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE 40S
AND 50S. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
AND LIKELY THROUGH CHRISTMAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW
70-90% FOR LESS THAN 0.01" OF RAIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING JUST AFTER CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) BRIEFLY AT
MAINLY EAR TUE AM.
TONIGHT: MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH LGT AND VRBL WINDS THIS EVE WILL
GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY INCR HIGH CLOUDS AND SERLY WINDS TOWARDS
12Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
TUESDAY: APPEARS A NARROW ZONE (IN TIME AND SPACE) OF LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT, YET BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REALLY GETS UNDERWAY, AT MAINLY EAR IN THE 12-16Z TIME
FRAME. EXPECT S/SSW FLOW OF ~40KT AT ONLY 1000-1500FT AGL DURING
THIS TIME WITH SFC WINDS GENERALLY SERLY AT 6-9KT. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD INCR ENOUGH PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LLJ
AT GRI, THOUGH LLWS COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR AN HR, OR TWO,
AROUND 15-16Z. SFC WINDS WILL THEN BEC A BIT BRZY OUT OF THE S
AROUND 10-20KT FOR THE LATE AM THROUGH EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL
VEER AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT 19-21Z, THEN VEER TO NW AND INCR BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND
21-22Z. AS FOR CLOUDS, EXPECT AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. CONFIDENCE:
GENERAL TRENDS - HIGH, EXACT TIMING OF FRONT/WIND SHIFTS - MED.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...THIES
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