056
FXUS63 KGID 171735
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1135 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FORECAST LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A LESS
THAN A 5% CHANCE OF HAVING A WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE 50S, BUT WILL GUSTY WINDS AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
(WESTERN ZONES).
- COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S (TRI-
CITIES) SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
- NICE WARM UP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
FINAL DAYS LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
CONTINUED DRY LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS...
THE BIG STORY IS THE EXPECTATION FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS WITH ONLY 1 OUT OF 50 ECMWF 00Z
12/17/2024 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING 0.10 OR MORE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A FEW MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, BUT AGAIN A VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DRY. IN ADDITION,
THE OVERALL PERIOD LEADING UP TO AND INCLUDING CHRISTMAS WILL
GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING FRIDAY
DEC 20 - SATURDAY DEC 21. THEREFORE, EVEN IF WE DO SEE ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS, RAIN IS MORE LIKELY
THAN SNOW AT THIS POINT. A REVIEW OF THE MOST RECENT 50 ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH CHRISTMAS ONLY
INDICATES 1 OUT OF THE 50 MEMBERS WITH MORE THAN A TRACE OF
SNOW. CHRISTMAS IS STILL MORE THAN A WEEK AWAY SO THINGS COULD
CHANGE, BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS RATHER
UNLIKELY (LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE). THERE COULD BE A STORM SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIGHT AFTER CHRISTMAS, BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWING UP IN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS...
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S. WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS
TO AROUND 50 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVING US NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND
MAKING FOR A COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 IN YORK TO THE MID 40S IN LEXINGTON AND PHILLIPSBURG.
THURSDAY...
IT WILL BE WINDY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH. THE STRONG MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. WILL CONTINUE
TO CALL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE RH VALUES COULD DIP TO AROUND 25% THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES SHOULD SEE MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 30% TO 35%.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MODEL SPREAD (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE) IN THE TRI-CITIES IS
GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND THEN 30S
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
BEGINNING SUNDAY PEAKING RIGHT AROUND DEC 24TH OR 25TH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 40S AND THEN
RISING TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S BY DEC 24-25.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT, WHICH WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NNW
LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING...THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AND TURNING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CLOUD BASES IN
THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THAT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS VFR, SO KEPT
CLOUD BASES AT FEW/SCT015...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
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