105
FXUS63 KGID 180539
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1139 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS INCLUDES A LOOK AT CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY...THOSE HOPING
FOR SNOW/A WHITE CHRISTMAS, SORRY I DON'T HAVE BETTER NEWS.
- TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER. FORECAST HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT THEN DROPPING
THEM BACK INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
CURRENTLY RETURNING BY CHRISTMAS EVE. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR
CHRISTMAS ARE MAINLY MID-UPPER 30S.
- THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY USHERS IN A PUSH OF GUSTY NW
WINDS, AND ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG/WEST OF AN ORD-PHILLIPSBURG LINE, THE COMBO OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOWER RH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BEEN AN OVERALL QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THICKER
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOOKING
ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AHEAD OF A BROADER
TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN PLAINS. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE REMAINING JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH-
NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...AND ALTHOUGH NOT STRONG, IS SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NNW AS IT PASSES BY. SPEEDS HERE AT MID- AFTERNOON (REGARDLESS
OF DIRECTION) ARE HANGING AROUND THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. NO BIG
SURPRISES AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, NEAR 50 IN FAR SOUTHERN SPOTS.
FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, NO CHANGE TO THE DRY FORECAST.
EXPECTING A PERIOD MAINLY EARLY-MID EVENING WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER PUSH OF THOSE NNW WINDS, WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 MPH NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL TAPER OFF, TURNING
A TOUCH MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO ALSO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MOST SPOTS.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
LOOKING TOWARD THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OVERALL
THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY, SET UP BETWEEN CONTINUED RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY EVENTUALLY DIGGING MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK REMAINS DRY, WITH
MODELS SHOWING MAINLY JUST ONE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OF
NOTE...SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SLIDING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE BRUNT OF LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSING OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST...KEEPING THINGS FOR US DRY.
AT THE SURFACE, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, CLOSER TO 5-10 MPH, TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS WE SIT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SURFACE
HIGH, WINDS CONTINUE THE TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH MOST
SPOTS SEEING SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH...WESTERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY, THE MAIN IMPACT ON OUR AREA FROM THAT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GUSTY WINDS. THE INITIAL
SWITCH IN WINDS TO THE NW LOOKING TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE BETTER PUSH OF STRONGER WINDS AND COLDER AIR
LAGGING A BIT BEHIND. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA, SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...WINDS FURTHER SOUTH ARE A BIT LIGHTER. WITH A
DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND CONFIDENCE IN
LOW...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BEFORE THE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN. WITH THOSE
TEMPS CURRENTLY FORECAST, ALONG WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/RH AND GUSTY
WINDS, SOME AREAS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-PHILLIPSBURG
LINE.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY HAS LIGHTER WINDS, TRANSITIONING
FROM THE NORTH TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY MORE SOUTHERLY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO/SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
IS CURRENTLY THE OVERALL COLDEST DAY OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 IN THE ENE TO NEAR 40 IN THE WSW.
UPCOMING WEEKEND ON INTO FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ON INTO CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY, AGAIN
THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN MODELS FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND FOR THOSE HOPING FOR SNOW/A WHITE CHRISTMAS...SORRY
THE NEWS HASN'T IMPROVED. THE FORECAST ON THROUGH MID-WEEK
REMAINS DRY...NEXT NOTABLE SYSTEM THAT *COULD* AFFECT THE AREA
IS CURRENTLY JUST BEYOND THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, AND COULD
BE A WARMER/LIQUID SYSTEM...NOTHING SET IN STONE FOR SURE.
MODELS SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WITH
PERIODIC DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE 50S BY THE TIME TUE/WED (CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY) ROLL
AROUND. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS ARE MAINLY MID- UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL 10Z
AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 16Z. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED BEGINNING AT
03Z/04Z. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AND TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH BY 21Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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