323
FXUS63 KGID 181813
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1213 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 TO 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE ORD, NE AREA.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS
EVE).
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S (FRIDAY) TO THE
UPPER 50S (THURSDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD
TO TEXAS. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. A BROAD, UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SURFACE TROUGH INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THEN
SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND WINDS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE ORD AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO
45 MPH. ELSEWHERE, SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE)...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL WARM UP A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S TO
LOW 50S ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IMPACTS
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO A PASSING UPPER TROUGH BUT GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM UP WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH WINDS AND LLWS. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY,
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10-15 MPH. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING, CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LLWS STARTING MID-EVENING. THOUGH
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT (COULD HAVE SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH) AND TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME, MODELS
ALSO SHOWING THOSE WINDS ALOFT TURNING, KEEPING THAT LLWS THREAT
GOING...HAVE THE MENTION GOING THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY. THE
FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT FRONT LOOK TO OCCUR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...ADP
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