936
FXUS63 KGID 182348
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80, AND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. FOR THOSE
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 55 MPH ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE COMBINATION OF EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR-CRITICAL TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS IS MAINLY A CONCERN FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF A
KEARNEY-OSBORNE LINE.
- THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
IS CURRENTLY DRY.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO CROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY TIME FRAME. THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
ON CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE ONE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON...THOUGH CURRENTLY IT LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY LIQUID EVENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENTLY...
BEEN ANOTHER OVERALL QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH
FOR SOME IT STARTED OUT ON THE FOGGY SIDE. A NARROW SWATH OF
LOW LEVEL STRATUS STRETCHED ROUGHLY ALONG HWY 183 THIS MORNING,
AND ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS, ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY FOG...AT TIME VISIBILITIES WERE LESS THAN ONE MILE.
THAT LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG DISSIPATED BY LATE MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE SHOWING PATCHY UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT THE PATTERN
ALOFT, UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKE TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. NOW THAT THE MAIN
AXIS IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, OUR AUTOMATED SITES ARE
REPORTING SSWRLY WINDS, SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 MPH. TEMPS HAVE
WORKED OUT PRETTY WELL TODAY, WITH 3PM READINGS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE EAST TO MID 40S WEST.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE DRY PORTION OF THE FORECAST HERE IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE AREA
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH FOCUS TURNING TOWARD A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TONIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY, MODELS SHOWING THIS
DISTURBANCE CONTINUING ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TREK THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. THE BRUNT OF THE
FORCING AND THUS BEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA...WITH OUR MAIN IMPACT COMING FROM THE GUSTY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE FRONT/SWITCH IN WINDS HASN'T CHANGED
TOO MUCH...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING, WITH IT NOT
BEING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE MORE WESTERLY SHIFT SPREAD
EAST. A STRONGER PUSH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OCCURS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY WAS TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASED
MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AIDING IN TAPPING INTO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (ESP. IN THE NORTH). MODELS VARY SOME WITH
THE HEIGHT OF MIXING AND MAGNITUDE OF WINDS ALOFT...BUT EITHER
WAY FELT AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS/GUSTS WAS WARRANTED. FOR AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 6, SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...AS ARE GUSTS OF 40-50. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF
HWY 92 WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THOSE VALUES (ORD ASOS WILL
BE ONE TO WATCH)...AND A FEW GUST CLOSER TO 55 MPH ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. NO FORMAL WIND HEADLINES WERE ISSUED...AS OUR
CRITERIA IS SUSTAINED 40+ MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58+ MPH.
EXPECTING A DRIER AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, AND
FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S...AND MODELS SHOW
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS SUFFERS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID
50S SOUTH...AND FOR MANY AREAS THAT MAY BE REACHED MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON VS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN,
ESP. WITH THESE WINDS...AND FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF A
KEARNEY-OSBORNE LINE, NEAR-CRITICAL TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY, AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR INCOMING
FORECAST CREWS TO TAKE A GOOD LOOK AT, WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A
T/TD ADJUSTMENT TO NEED TO CONSIDER A FIRE HEADLINE.
WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS,
EXPECTED TO DROP CLOSER TO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL HELP
TEMPS DROP, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NEAR 10 IN THE NORTH TO MID-UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME REMAINS DRY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, OVERALL NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A MORE
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING AGAIN TO OUR NNE FRI NIGHT-
SAT AM, WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. A BIT OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS SAT PM INTO
AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKING TO TAKE
A SIMILAR TRACK SUN PM-MON AM, CROSSING THE DAKOTAS AND THEN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT DOESN'T BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO
THE FORECAST AREA, AND MAY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT OTHER THAN A
SWITCH IN WINDS. ON FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING THE DAY SWITCHING TO THE
EAST, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 MPH OR SO. CURRENTLY NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE SSE
WINDS FOR SATURDAY, BUT MAY INCREASE IN SPEED A BIT FOR SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THAT NEXT/STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM. MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, BUT SPEEDS CURRENTLY ARE STILL ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE OVERALL
COLDEST DAY OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY PERIOD, WITH THAT COLDER
AIRMASS STARTING TO BUILDING TOMORROW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE
MID 20S (ENE) TO MID 30S (WSW). GRADUAL WARMING TREND STILL
FORECAST, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH CHANGE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGH...BUT HIGHS BY SUN/MON ARE BACK IN THE MID 40S-LOW 50S.
CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY...
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS 2-DAY PERIOD, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY,
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS SHOWING THE FIRST
SIZABLE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, BUT VARY SOME
ON THE TIMING. THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING, AGREEMENT IS
BETTER THAN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FOCUSED
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, AND MORESO CHRISTMAS NIGHT, FOCUS WILL TURN
TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MODELS SHOW
CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CURRENT RUN OF MODELS SHOW
THAT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS KEEPS THE DAY
DRY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING THAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY (TECHNICALLY
OUTSIDE THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD). MODELS STILL ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF THINGS FOR THIS SYSTEM, KEEPING IT RAIN...BUT
THERE'S A LOT OF TIME/MODEL RUNS TO GET THROUGH BEFORE HAVING
ANY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON OVER THE COMING WEEK.
ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME WAS
TO TEMPERATURES...PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE MORE IN THE 50S FOR
HIGHS BOTH DAYS...THINGS HAVE TRENDED A TOUCH COOLER, WITH MID
40S-LOW 50S NOW FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AND LLWS
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS: SCT TO BKN CLOUD CLOVER AT AROUND 20K FT AGL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AFTER WHICH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS: EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING FROM 10 TO AROUND 15
KTS THIS EVENING, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY, SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KTS, AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30
KTS MID- TO LATE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE APPROACHING 40 KTS, STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
LLWS: VERY CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT KGRI AND KEAR
AT AROUND 1500-2000 FEET FROM AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING UNTIL 16Z
THURSDAY MORNING. LLWS WILL START OUT SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING, THEN BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 08Z, THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT
10-13Z THURSDAY MORNING. THOSE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY 16-18Z THURSDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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