803
FXUS63 KGID 191708
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1108 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
- GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 TO 55 MPH NEAR ORD, NE.
- TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
- PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE (15% TO 25% CHANCE) WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
IN THE 20S AND 30S. WINDS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS WITH A TURN
MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE ORD, NE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 50 TO 55 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(AROUND 20%) OF BRIEF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS (AROUND 58 MPH)
IN AND NEAR THE ORD, NE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THE WIND
CHILL COULD BE AS LOW AS ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CLOSENESS OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND STARTING ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS. THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THIS WARM UP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST
UPPER RIDGING THEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY) WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION, ACCORDING TO THE GFS TEMPERATURES, COULD BE IN THE
FORM OF A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF MODEL IS SHOWING
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS.
THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE ECMWF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASINGLY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OVER 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (95%+) IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-040-
046-047.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...MANGELS
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