306
FXUS63 KGID 201703
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1103 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY AND COLD THIS MORNING, THEN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS (BUT
STILL CHILLY) FOR THE AFTERNOON.
- WARMING TREND DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED (>70%)
ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
- THE PERSISTENT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LARGELY
QUIET/DRY FORECAST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE-HOLIDAY
TRAVEL CONCERNS IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MOISTURE, WHICH COULD COME AS RAIN OR
SNOW, DOESN'T COME UNTIL LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY, OR THE DAY
AFTER. MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
THOUGH WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN 12 HOURS AGO, IT'S STILL A
BIT BLUSTERY OUT THERE, AND ALSO QUITE COLD WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. FACTORING CONTINUED
NW WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
QUITE COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SO BE SURE
TO BUNDLE UP FOR THE AM COMMUTE! FORTUNATELY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO
DECR SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE AFTN. IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY AND
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, BUT PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE AND THE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD HELP MAKE IT FEEL
"DECENT" FOR MID-LATE DEC. LIGHT SRLY RETURN FLOW RETURNS
TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SRLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SAT AND WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH A NICE
WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO/THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SAT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S (E TO W) WITH S/SW/W BECOMING EVEN MORE CONDUCIVE TO A NICE
WARMUP ON SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. MAY EVEN SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LOWER 60S W/SW OF THE TRI-CITIES WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAY BE MORE VEERED AND MIXING A BIT DEEPER. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS, BUT APPEARS
GREATER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FURTHER W.
WINDS LOOK LIGHT AGAIN FOR TUE. TEMPS SLIDE BACK A BIT INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE (WED), BUT THIS IS STILL
WELL- ABOVE NORMAL (~10F OR MORE) FOR LATE DEC. THE MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS WITHIN WEAK,
SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A QUIET PRE- HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD IN AND NEAR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
SOME DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO HINT AT A
RETURN OF LOW-END/LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK -
BEGINNING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR THE FOLLOWING DAY. PRECIP
TYPE IS STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WARM TEMPS
AND LACK OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
SHOULD SOME OF THIS PRECIP FALL AS SNOW THAT IT WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANT OR IMPACTFUL. IN FACT, LATEST 00Z EPS BRINGS HIGHS
IN THE 50S RIGHT BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND EVEN INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. IT'S NOT UNTIL AROUND THE
START OF THE NEW YEAR THAT IT EVEN HINTS AT ANYTHING POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL FROM A WINTRY PRECIP PERSPECTIVE. SANTA IS BRINGING
THE GIFTS (OR COAL) NEXT WEEK, BUT HE'S NOT BRINGING ANY WINTRY
WEATHER FROM THE NORTH POLE WITH HIM TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS!
SOUNDS PRETTY "NICE" TO ME!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH ANY CLOUD COVER PASSING THROUGH (ESP THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING) EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH, TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND
10 MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ADP
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