169
FXUS63 KGID 210535
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1135 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S (SOME 60S WEST) FOR SUNDAY.
- FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AND AT LEAST THE
DAYTIME HOURS CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH
(20 PERCENT), REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN PRECIP TYPE BEING RAIN.
- NO NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES NOR STRONG PUSHES OF WIND
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. HIGHS MONDAY ARE
IN THE LOW-MID 50S, WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...HAVING A WELCOME BREAK
FROM YESTERDAY'S HOWLING WINDS. UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SITTING
BETWEEN TROUGHING ALMOST TO THE EAST COAST AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH ID/MT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS HERE AT MID-
AFTERNOON...IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING A BATCH OF THICKER MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, KEEPING SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CANADA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WINDS START THE TODAY MAINLY NORTHERLY,
TURNING LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH THE AXIS ITSELF, AND NOW MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AFTER GUSTS YESTERDAY EXCEEDING 40-50 MPH (AND A
FEW CLOSER TO 60 MPH)...SPEEDS TODAY HAVE BEEN A MUCH MORE
PLEASANT CALM TO AROUND 10 MPH. NO BIG SURPRISES AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO, THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE (AND AIDED BY CLOUD
COVER) HAS KEPT TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 20S IN THE NE
TO MID 30S IN THE SW.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
REIGN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE IN THE DAKOTAS REMAINING OFF TO OUR NNE,
WITH LITTLE/IF ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING SKY
COVER TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. WITH THESE TWO THINGS AND THE AIRMASS BEING ON THE DRY
SIDE, KEPT LOWS TRENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...AROUND 10 IN FAR NNW AREAS, MID TEENS FURTHER SE.
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
OVERALL FOR THIS TIME FRAME, NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. IT REMAINS A DRY FORECAST, WITH MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING INTO MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW LOOKS TO
ROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY AM, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE SYSTEM
(AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES) TO THE NE OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS IT TRAVELS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, WINDS ON SATURDAY REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS WE SIT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXPANDS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SPEEDS ON SATURDAY REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
(ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON), AS THAT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS, AN ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, AND FOR FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, COULD BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. AS THAT FRONT
MOVES IN, WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE NW. THE NWRLY WINDS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, BUT THIS ISN'T LOOKING TO BE A STRONG PUSH OF
WIND/HIGHER SPEEDS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THAT
SURFACE FRONT. AFTER 20S/30S TODAY, EXPECTING MID 30S-MID/UPPER
40S FOR SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY FOR MOST, SOME
60S IN THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE. THOUGH NOT A STRONG COLD FRONT, IT
DOES DROP HIGHS FOR MONDAY BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S...KEEP IN
MIND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ROUGHLY MID 30S-AROUND 40.
CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY ON THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NE ON SUN/MON MARKS
THE TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO A
MORE ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND
END OF THE WEEK...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FINALLY MAKE A
RETURN TO THE FORECAST, BUT THOSE STILL HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ARE OUT OF LUCK.
THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE PLAINS MOVES
IN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AM (CHRISTMAS EVE), BUT
THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DRY. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS DISTURBANCE DIGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES, CONTINUING THAT TREND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY SUCH THAT IT DRIVES THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN KS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THEN
PUSHING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS LOOKS TO KEEP THE
TUESDAY NIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD DRY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM IS WHAT IS DRIVING OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH PLENTY OF
DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS TO IRON OUT, THOSE CHANCES REMAIN LOW (20
PERCENT). MODELS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM HAVING A TRACK MAINLY
SOUTH OF US, CROSSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN
ONTO THE PLAINS...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION CAN REACH NORTH ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TO IMPACT
OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND MODEL THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO POINT TO THINGS BEING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS A
LIQUID/RAIN EVENT. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT LEAST AT THIS POINT, NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO HAVE A
NOTABLE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO OVERALL WINDS ARE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE (MAINLY PEAKING AROUND 10-15 MPH), AND NO BIG
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL
VARY FROM LGT SERLY THIS AM, TO SSWRLY 8-11KT THIS AFTN AND EVE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...THIES
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