202
FXUS63 KGID 211045
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
HIGHS TODAY RETURNING TO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND 50S
TO EVEN LOW 60S (FAR WEST) ON SUNDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THE PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE IN THE LATE
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME, BUT LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS LITTLE
TO NO IMPACTS.
- ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD, INCLUDING
NEXT WEEKEND. IT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE
OF WARMTH SUGGESTS MORE RAIN THAN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
IF YOU'RE A FAN OF WINTRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ON OR AROUND THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, SORRY, I APOLOGIZE...BUT THIS FORECAST IS
NOT FOR YOU. THE GOOD NEWS, HOWEVER, IS THAT THERE DOESN'T LOOK
TO BE ANY IMPACTS TO PRE OR POST HOLIDAY TRAVEL LOCALLY OR
WITHIN THE REGION. GRANTED, FOR SOME, THIS MAY ALSO BE BAD NEWS,
FOR WHICH, AGAIN...I APOLOGIZE. THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT, IF YOU
HAVEN'T ALREADY GUESSED, IS THAT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY.
MODEST RETURN S-SW BREEZES SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 30S EAST (NEAR NORMAL) TO UPPER 40S WEST (ABOVE NORMAL)
TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FOR SUN (THOUGH STILL NOT TOO BAD IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE),
WHICH WILL HELP TO BOOST MIXING AND HIGHS EVEN HIGHER INTO THE
LOW 50S E TO LOWER 60S(!) W. OVERALL...GREAT CONDITIONS AND
TRAVEL WEATHER FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOPPING AND/OR HOLIDAY
GATHERINGS.
A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODEST DROP IN TEMPS FOR
MON - THOUGH STILL EXPECT VERY MILD UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS
FRONT WON'T HAVE EVEN REMOTELY THE KIND OF WIND WE HAD ON THU
AND WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WEAKER MON-TUE THAN OVER THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO NOSE OF MODEST HIGH PRESSURE. SOME CLOUDS AND
WEAKER MIXING MAY KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S FOR TUE, BUT THIS
IS STILL A SOLID 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
SEASONABLY MILD NEXT FEW NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
CHRISTMAS DAY DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AND CONTINUED
MILD (HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND MID 40S), BUT AT LEAST LOW-END
PRECIP CHCS RETURN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAST
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRACKING
THE BRUNT OF THE QPF JUST S/SE OF THE LOCAL AREA, AND THIS
APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR TOTAL QPF
>0.10" AT LESS THAN 10-20%. FURTHERMORE, GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND LACK OF NEW COLD AIR FOR THE
SYSTEM ITSELF TO PULL IN FROM THE N, THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF
PRECIP WILL BE LIQUID. DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE, SOME OF
THIS PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR MORE AS DRIZZLE THAN RAIN. EITHER
WAY, PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE QPF AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IS
VERY LOW - SUGGESTING LITTLE TO NO NEGATIVE IMPACTS. WILL
OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS - BUT FROM A
PATTERN PERSPECTIVE ITS JUST NOT A VERY FAVORABLE ONE FOR SNOW
OR ANY FROZEN PRECIP GIVEN LACK OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH/LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NE/S OF THE AREA.
POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AS MILD, IF NOT EVEN
WARMER, THAN THE PRE-HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
LATEST ENSEMBLES (EPS, GEFS, AND GEPS) FOR MULTIPLE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
AREAS MAY EVEN GO MULTIPLE DAYS WITH LOWS ABOVE FREEZING.
AGAIN...QUITE MILD FOR LATE DEC IN THESE PARTS. THERE ARE SOME
MODEST SIGNALS FOR VARIOUS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE REGION IN WEAK ZONAL AND/OR SPLIT UPPER FLOW -
BUT SIMILAR TO THE CHRISTMAS DAY/26TH TIME FRAME, MAGNITUDE OF
WARMTH PRECEDING AND ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK WAVES ARGUES AGAINST
FROZEN PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS...PERHAPS...THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT COLDER AND MORE
ACTIVE AROUND THE START OF THE NEW YEAR...BUT THAT'S STILL WAY
OUT THERE IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD ~10 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL
VARY FROM LGT SERLY THIS AM, TO SSWRLY 8-11KT THIS AFTN AND EVE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page